Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Oct 19, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 19, 20234 min

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has maintained its upward trend and is currently hovering around the critical level of 150.00. However, traders appear cautious about taking strong positions due to investors closely monitoring Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Economic Club of New York. Powell is scheduled to speak at 16:00 GMT, and traders are hoping to gain insights into potential changes in interest rates. Additionally, the market is keeping a close eye on the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) taking action to stabilize the Japanese Yen, which has depreciated to nearly 150.00 against the US Dollar.

Market Expectations and Economic Insights

It's important to note that investors are anticipating Jerome Powell to express support for maintaining higher interest rates over an extended period with the goal of bringing inflation closer to the 2% target. Powell's colleagues have been advocating for keeping interest rates steady within the range of 5.25-5.50%. They believe that the current higher US Treasury yields are sufficient to influence spending and investment.

Hence, the expectation of Jerome Powell supporting prolonged higher interest rates may bolster the US Dollar, potentially leading to an upswing in the USD/JPY currency pair.

During the European trading session, the broad-based US dollar maintained its upward momentum and remained bullish for the day. This trend can be attributed to several factors, including S&P 500 futures showing slight losses, which indicated a preference for lower-risk investments. US stocks declined on Wednesday as the third-quarter earnings season began. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have made investors more cautious about riskier assets, further boosting the US dollar.

The Japanese Yen's Weakness and Intervention Concerns

Investors are watching closely at the Japanese Yen situation if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will address the Yen's drop to nearly 150.00 against the US Dollar. However, any intervention may not be very effective because Yen's weakness results from Japan's strategy of using low-interest rates and injecting money to stimulate the economy. This strategy tends to devalue the Yen in international markets. Even if intervention occurs, its impact may be limited, as the Yen's weakness is fundamentally linked to its economic approach.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY, a currency pair emblematic of two of the globe's powerhouse economies, serves as more than a mere indicator of economic vitality. It's also a gauge of geopolitical strains and global risk sentiment fluctuations. At present, this significant pair is trading at 149.79, marking a slight decrease of 0.07% over the last day. The pivot point, a cornerstone of our analysis, stands at 149.49.

When casting our gaze upward, we identify resistance levels at 149.96, 150.44, and a further hurdle at 150.96. Conversely, support for the pair is found at 149.03, with subsequent cushions at 148.43 and 147.96.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 57. This places it notably above the midpoint of 50, insinuating a gentle bullish sentiment without veering into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers a slightly more cautionary tale, subtly suggesting a bearish sentiment as it lies just beneath the signal line.

Further buoyancy comes from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which is marked at 149.45. With the pair's price hovering above this level, it appears the winds of a short-term bullish trend are blowing.

In terms of chart patterns, we're observing a pronounced upward channel, indicating an inclination towards buying. Such a pattern typically signals robust buying momentum, and the implication here is a potential continuation of the uptrend, contingent on the respect of the channel's lower boundary.

Drawing conclusions from the assorted indicators and chart patterns, the sentiment leans bullish for as long as the pair remains above the pivotal 149.49 level. A dip beneath this could see traders donning a more conservative hat. In the short-term trajectory, the USD/JPY looks poised to possibly challenge the 150.44 resistance, buoyed by the prevailing buying sentiment.

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