Technical Analysis

S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – June 21, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 21, 2024
Spx

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 index continued its downward trend, remaining under pressure around the 5,473 level and hitting an intra-day low of 5,455. The losing streak can be attributed to economic uncertainties, including disappointing data releases. This decline reflects a cautious shift in investor sentiment after a period of record highs and optimistic market conditions.

Impact of Disappointing US Economic Data and Bearish US Dollar on S&P 500

On the US front, the release of poor US economic data revealed weaknesses in employment, housing, and manufacturing sectors. Investors responded cautiously by adjusting their portfolios, reflecting concerns about future economic performance. This cautious reaction in financial markets suggests broader implications beyond immediate market movements, influencing policy decisions and consumer confidence in the coming months.

The Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy also came under scrutiny. Despite earlier expectations of a potential rate cut, the mixed economic data complicated the outlook. While some market participants priced in a rate reduction later in the year, the overall uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment, contributing to the day's downturn in the S&P 500.

Furthermore, the US Dollar weakened as a result of these economic concerns. A weaker dollar typically benefits multinational corporations within the S&P 500 by making their exports more competitive and boosting overseas earnings. However, in this instance, the broader market sentiment overshadowed potential currency advantages, as investors focused more on domestic economic fundamentals and their implications for future corporate profitability.

On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor reported that new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 238,000 in the week ending June 15, slightly surpassing the expected 235,000. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau indicated a 5.2% decline in Housing Starts for May, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982,000 units. Building Permits also decreased by 2.9% to 949,000 units during the same period. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell to 1.3 in June from 4.5 the previous month, marking its fifth consecutive month in positive territory despite the decrease.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming economic reports, including flash PMI prints and existing home sales data, for further insights into the health of the global economy and potential implications for future market movements. The Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions on monetary policy will also be pivotal in shaping investor sentiment and market direction in the coming months.

S&P 500 Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
S&P 500 Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

S&P 500 - Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading at $5473.16, down 0.25% in the latest session. The pivot point, marked by the green line at $5479.02, serves as a crucial threshold for market sentiment. Immediate resistance levels are observed at $5507.58, $5526.25, and $5547.12, indicating potential selling pressure points if the index attempts to rally. On the downside, immediate support is found at $5447.72, with further support at $5420.65 and $5402.45, which could act as buy zones should the index decline further.

Technical indicators show that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62, suggesting the market is nearing overbought territory, but not yet excessively so. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $5391.17, reinforcing the current bullish trend as the index price remains above this average. This technical landscape suggests that while the S&P 500 maintains an overall upward momentum, the immediate drop below the pivot point hints at potential short-term weakness.

Traders might consider a sell limit order at $5478, just below the pivot point, with a take profit target at $5447 and a stop loss at $5505. This strategy is supported by the RSI indicating potential for a downward correction and the presence of immediate resistance above the pivot point.

In summary, the S&P 500 is currently exhibiting mixed signals with a slight downward bias below the pivot point. The index’s movement around the key levels of $5479.02 will be critical in determining its short-term direction. The current technical indicators suggest a cautious approach, with the potential for a corrective decline if resistance levels hold and the index fails to reclaim the pivot point.

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GOLD Price Analysis – June 21, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 21, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and remained well bid above the 2,362 level, hitting an intraday high of 2,368 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to combination of factors including a weaker US dollar. The US dollar dropped following recently released disappointing US economic data. This reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start its interest rate cuts program.

Apart from this, rising concerns about the US economy led to a risk-off sentiment in markets, which increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, further supporting its higher prices.

Impact of US Economic Trends and Fed Policy on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been flashing red and remains under pressure due to recently released disappointing economic data. This has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon begin easing its policies. Although Fed officials initially indicated a preference for maintaining higher interest rates, market sentiment has shifted.

Investors now believe there is a strong possibility of an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting, but they only expect one cut to occur this year. This anticipated policy shift is a response to the weakening economic indicators and the need to stimulate economic growth.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's remarks indicate confidence in the economy's strength but suggest a prolonged timeline of one to two years to achieve the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. This suggests a cautious approach to inflation management despite overall economic health.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin highlighted the Fed's readiness to employ various policy tools to address economic challenges. His emphasis on adapting policies based on current economic data underscores the Fed's flexibility and responsiveness in navigating uncertainties and ensuring economic stability amidst evolving conditions.

On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor reported that new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 238,000 in the week ending June 15, slightly surpassing the expected 235,000. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau indicated a 5.2% decline in Housing Starts for May, falling to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982,000 units. Building Permits also decreased by 2.9% to 949,000 units during the same period.

Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell to 1.3 in June from 4.5 the previous month, marking its fifth consecutive month in positive territory despite the decrease.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar and potential Fed rate cuts amid mixed economic data could support gold prices by lowering the dollar's value and signaling economic uncertainty, bolstering safe-haven demand for precious metals.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2363.585, up 0.15% in the early European session. The pivot point at $2365.503, marked by the green line, is critical for short-term trading strategies. Immediate resistance levels are observed at $2372.585, $2378.588, and $2387.253. These levels indicate where bullish momentum might encounter selling pressure. On the downside, immediate support is at $2355.424, followed by $2347.821 and $2338.626. These support levels could act as potential buy zones if the price declines.

Technical indicators reveal that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, suggesting the asset is approaching overbought territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2332.486, indicating an underlying bullish trend as the current price is above this average. This technical setup suggests that gold has upward momentum, but caution is warranted as it nears resistance levels.

Given this outlook, traders might consider selling below the pivot point of $2365, with a take profit target at $2350 and a stop loss at $2372. This strategy is supported by the immediate resistance just above the pivot point and the overbought RSI indicating potential for a pullback.

In summary, gold's current price action is influenced by technical levels that are crucial for short-term traders. The immediate resistance at $2372.585 and the support at $2355.424 will be key in determining the next direction for gold prices.

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EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 21, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 21, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0683 level, hitting an intraday low of 1.0671. The downward trend was attributed to disappointing Eurozone preliminary PMI data and German Preliminary Manufacturing PMI, indicating a loss of economic momentum. Additionally, political uncertainty in France, the Eurozone's second-largest economy, was seen as another key factor keeping the EUR/USD pair lower.

Impact of Eurozone PMI Data on EUR/USD Pair

On the EUR front, the major currency pair dropped to a six-week low around 1.0670 as the Euro weakened. This followed disappointing preliminary PMI data from the Eurozone, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum.

On the data front, the latest HCOB purchasing managers index survey revealed a downturn in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector, with the PMI dropping to 45.6 in June from 47.3 in May, falling short of expectations and hitting a six-month low. The services sector also showed deterioration, declining to 52.2 from 53.2, below the anticipated 53.5 and marking a three-month low.

Meanwhile, the overall Eurozone PMI Composite fell sharply to 50.8, well below forecasts and May's reading, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. In Germany, manufacturing contracted further to 43.4, below expectations, while services weakened to 53.5, contributing to a decline in the composite output index to 50.6, its lowest level in two months.

Therefore, the disappointing Eurozone PMI data led to a weakening Euro, pushing the EUR/USD pair to a six-week low near 1.0670. Investors reacted to signs of economic slowdown, impacting the currency's performance against the US Dollar.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Policy Expectations on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the widely traded US dollar has been showing signs of weakness and continues to be under pressure following the release of recent disappointing economic data. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start to relax its policies. While Federal Reserve officials initially expressed a preference for keeping interest rates elevated, market sentiment has since shifted.

Investors now believe there is a strong possibility of an interest rate cut at the next policy meeting, but they only expect one cut to occur this year. This anticipated policy shift is a response to the weakening economic indicators and the need to stimulate economic growth.

On the economic data front, the US Department of Labor reported that new filings for unemployment benefits fell to 238,000 in the week ending June 15, slightly exceeding the anticipated 235,000. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau noted a 5.2% decrease in Housing Starts for May, dropping to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 982,000 units. Building Permits also saw a decline of 2.9% to 949,000 units during the same period.

Furthermore, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly declined to 1.3 in June from 4.5 in the previous month, continuing its streak of five consecutive months in positive territory despite the

Hence, the EUR/USD pair could experience upward pressure if the Federal Reserve follows through with the expected rate cuts, juxtaposed against Eurozone economic uncertainties and potential shifts in market sentiment favoring the Euro.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading at $1.07190, up 0.16% in the early European session. The pivot point at $1.07506 is a crucial level to watch for potential shifts in market sentiment. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07508, with further resistance at $1.07706 and $1.07932. These levels indicate where upward momentum might face selling pressure. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.06865, followed by $1.06720 and $1.06553, which could act as potential buy zones if the price declines.

Technical indicators reveal that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, suggesting the asset is in a neutral zone and not overbought or oversold. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.07279, indicating a slight bullish trend as the current price is hovering around this average. This technical setup suggests a mixed outlook, with potential for upward movement if the price can sustain above the pivot point.

Given this outlook, traders might consider a buy entry above $1.06991, with a take profit target at the pivot point of $1.07506 and a stop loss at $1.06719. This strategy leverages the immediate support below the current price and targets a modest upward move towards the pivot point.

In summary, EUR/USD is currently showing modest gains with a key focus on the pivot point at $1.07506. The immediate resistance at $1.07508 and the support at $1.06865 will be crucial in determining the short-term direction for the pair. The RSI at 46 and the 50-day EMA at $1.07279 suggest a cautious but potentially optimistic outlook for the euro against the dollar.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 20, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 20, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward rally and remained well bid around the 0.6541 level, hitting an intraday high of 0.6680. The upward trend can be attributed to the risk-on market sentiment, which supports riskier assets such as the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took a hawkish stance at its June meeting on Tuesday, which further bolstered the AUD/USD pair. Conversely, the US dollar weakened due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, which weighed on the Greenback and contributed to the gains in the AUD/USD pair.

Impact of RBA's Hawkish Stance on AUD/USD Outlook

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is gaining ground because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a hawkish stance at its June meeting. Despite acknowledging economic uncertainties and challenges in achieving inflation targets, the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% hinted at a cautious optimism.

Governor Michele Bullock emphasized a readiness to take necessary actions to stabilize inflation. Traders are eyeing the upcoming Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI for June, expected to improve to 50.6, which could influence future RBA decisions and potentially support the Australian dollar against the USD.

Therefore, the hawkish RBA stance and potential economic recovery indicated by the PMI could bolster the AUD/USD pair amid expectations of delayed rate cuts and improved sentiment towards the Australian dollar.

Impact of US Economic Indicators on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar lost some of its gains due to earlier expectations and speculation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This shift was influenced by weaker Retail Sales data and concerns about economic slowdown, which have tempered market optimism. Meanwhile, the Fed's revised projection of only one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three, could help the US dollar limit its losses. This adjustment has stabilized Treasury yields and restored some investor confidence, countering earlier concerns about economic slowdown and reducing downward pressure on the dollar.

Therefore, the US dollar's mild bearish bias, driven by reduced rate cut expectations and stabilized Treasury yields, ease downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair amid improved investor sentiment towards the dollar.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on several key economic indicators and events in the United States. These include the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and a speech by Fed official Neel Kashkari on Thursday. Additionally, on Friday, attention will turn to the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports for June.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.66716, showing a slight decline of 0.08%. The 4-hour chart highlights key technical levels that are crucial for traders. The pivot point at $0.6675 is a significant marker for determining the next direction of price movement. Immediate resistance is seen at $0.6690, with further resistance levels at $0.6704 and $0.6719. These resistance points are essential barriers that could cap any potential upward movement.

On the support side, immediate support is located at $0.6654, followed by stronger support levels at $0.6641 and $0.6630. These support levels are vital in preventing further declines in the AUD/USD pair.

Technical Indicators:

    The bearish outlook is supported by the current price action, which is below the pivot point of $0.6675. Market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by global economic factors and domestic data releases that impact the Australian dollar.

    Conclusion:

    For traders looking to capitalize on the current bearish trend, an entry price below $0.66745 is recommended. The take profit level is set at $0.66484, with a stop loss at $0.66897 to manage potential risks.

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    GOLD Price Analysis – June 20, 2024

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Jun 20, 2024
    Gold

    Daily Price Outlook

    Despite the bullish US dollar and risk-on sentiment, the safe-haven gold has maintained its upward momentum, staying well bid around the $2,343 level and reaching an intraday high of $2,345. This upward trend can be attributed to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in financial markets, which have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, the previously released weaker-than-expected Retail Sales have fueled speculation of US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year, weighing on the US dollar and contributing to gold's gains.

    Looking ahead, investors will focus on several key economic indicators and events in the United States. These include the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and a speech by Fed official Neel Kashkari on Thursday. Additionally, on Friday, attention will turn to the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports for June.

    Bullish US Dollar Limits Gold's Upside Amidst Reduced Rate Cut Expectations

    Despite earlier expectations and speculation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to weaker Retail Sales data and concerns about economic slowdown, the US dollar is gaining momentum. This was supported by signs of easing inflation and a stabilizing economy. Moreover, an uptick in US Treasury bond yields has increased demand for the USD, contrasting with previous expectations of rate cuts, which typically weaken a currency.

    However, the Fed's revised projection of one rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of three, has further bolstered Treasury yields and limited gold's upward potential. Therefore, the strong US dollar, fueled by diminished expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and positive economic indicators, is putting downward pressure on gold prices. Investors are preferring the dollar over precious metals amid economic uncertainty.

    Geopolitical Tensions Drive Investors to Safe-Haven Assets

    On the geopolitical front, the long-lasting tensions between Israel and Gaza show no signs of slowing down. This can be witnessed by the recent Israeli attacks near the Karem Abu Salem aid crossing in Rafah, which resulted in nine deaths and 30 injuries among civilians awaiting aid trucks.

    In Gaza, recent Israeli military actions have claimed 24 lives and left 71 injured, according to the enclave’s Health Ministry. Additionally, a United Nations commission has accused Israeli authorities of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity amid the conflict, which has already resulted in over 37,000 deaths and more than 85,000 injuries since October 7.

    Therefore, heightened tensions and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza have driven investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, influencing its price amidst geopolitical uncertainty and escalating conflict in the region.

    GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
    GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

    GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

    Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2331.94, up 0.03%, as it navigates a range-bound environment. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $2342.00, crucial for assessing the next price movement. Immediate resistance is at $2339.37, followed by $2353.95 and $2369.24. These levels are critical for any bullish advance.

    On the downside, immediate support is found at $2308.16, with further support at $2297.24 and $2287.04. These levels are significant to prevent deeper declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59, indicating moderate momentum without overbought conditions, suggesting room for further movement.

    The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2320.59 provides substantial support, reinforcing the current price level. The overall outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish above the $2342.00 pivot point.

    A break above this level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting the higher resistance levels. Conversely, a drop below immediate support at $2308.16 might trigger further selling pressure.

    The strategic entry point is set to buy above $2326, with a take profit target at $2342 and a stop loss at $2318. This setup aims to capitalize on potential upward movements while managing downside risks.

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    USD/JPY Price Analysis – June 20, 2024

    By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
    Jun 20, 2024
    Usdjpy

    Daily Price Outlook

    During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has showed a bullish trend and remained well bid around the 158.44 mark, hitting the intra-day high of 158.51 level. However, the bullish sentiment is primarily driven by several factors including the Bank of Japan's conservative stance, evident in its decision to delay tapering Japanese Government Bond purchases. This move suggests prolonged accommodative monetary policy, reducing confidence in the Yen and bolstering the Dollar's position against it in currency markets.

    Furthermore, the global equity markets' upbeat mood has contributed to diminishing demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. As investors seek higher returns in riskier assets, the allure of the Yen as a safe-haven diminishes, further supporting the bullish case for the USD/JPY pair.

    BoJ’s Cautious Approach and the Upbeat Market Mood Undermine the Safe-Haven JPY and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair

    On the BOJ front, the Bank of Japan's cautious strategy regarding tapering asset purchases has significant implications for the USD/JPY pair. By postponing discussions on reducing stimulus, the BoJ indicates a commitment to keeping monetary policy accommodative, which typically weakens the Japanese Yen. This diminishes the Yen's status as a safe-haven currency, prompting investors to favor higher-yield assets and riskier investments instead.

    Moreover, the upbeat mood in global equity markets further undermines the demand for the safe-haven JPY. Investors, seeking higher returns, move away from safe assets like the Yen towards currencies linked to economic growth, such as the US Dollar. This shift supports the USD/JPY pair's upward trend, indicating a preference for riskier investments over safe havens.

    Fed Rate-Cut Uncertainty Keeps the USD Bulls on the Defensive and Caps Gains for the Major and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair

    Despite the USD/JPY pair's bullish momentum, uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding interest rates have tempered the US Dollar's strength. The market sentiment anticipates potential rate cuts by the Fed amidst signs of subsiding inflation and economic uncertainties. This cautious stance by the Fed keeps USD bulls on the defensive, limiting the extent of gains for the USD/JPY pair.

    Investors closely monitor Federal Reserve communications and economic indicators for clues about future monetary policy actions. Speculations of multiple rate cuts this year suggest a less aggressive outlook for the US Dollar, contrasting with the more accommodative stance of other central banks, including the BoJ.

    This divergence in monetary policy expectations influences investor sentiment and contributes to volatility in the USD/JPY pair, as market participants adjust their positions based on evolving economic data and central bank rhetoric.

    USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
    USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

    USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

    The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at $158.110, reflecting a modest increase of 0.04%. The 4-hour chart outlines key technical levels that are crucial for traders to watch. The pivot point at $158.1940 is a significant marker for determining the next direction of price movement. Immediate resistance is noted at $158.5240, with further resistance levels at $158.8310 and $159.1500. These resistance points could pose challenges for the pair’s upward trajectory.

    On the support side, immediate support is situated at $157.6190, followed by more substantial support levels at $157.1500 and $156.7300. These support levels are critical for preventing further declines in the USD/JPY pair.

    Technical Indicators:

      The overall technical outlook suggests a bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $158.1940.

      For traders looking to capitalize on the current trend, an entry price above $158.245 is recommended. The take profit level is set at $158.800, with a stop loss at $157.800 to manage potential risks.

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      GOLD Price Analysis – June 19, 2024

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Jun 19, 2024
      Gold

      Daily Price Outlook

      Despite the bearish US dollar, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward trend and remains under pressure around the $2,328 level and hitting an intraday low of $2,335. However, the decline can be attributed to the upbeat market sentiment, which undermined safe-haven assets like Gold. On the flip side, the US dollar losing its traction on the back of the Fed's mixed stance on interest rate cuts. This was seen as a key factor that helped limit deeper losses for the Gold price.

      Weaker US Economic Data & Bearish US dollar Impact on Gold Prices

      On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has faild to stop its bearish rally and still flashing red due to weaker US retail sales and easing inflation data. This has increased market expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and contributed to the declines in the US dollar. Despite the Fed's more hawkish stance, indicating only one rate hike this year, investors are betting on two hikes in 2024. The softer economic data, including disappointing retail sales and declining inflation, suggest a slowing economy, strengthening the case for the Fed to lower borrowing costs sooner than anticipated.

      On the data front, the Commerce Department released figures showing a modest 0.1% increase in US Retail Sales for May, slightly lower than the anticipated 0.2% growth. This subdued report suggests consumer fatigue and a deceleration in economic momentum, further supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve could move to reduce interest rates earlier than previously forecasted.

      Therefore, the weaker US retail sales and easing inflation data are increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts, pressuring the US dollar and helping the Gold price to limit its deeper losses.

      Positive Market Sentiment & Its impact on Gold Prices

      On the other hand, the global market sentiment has been gaining momentum and remain positive as the S&P 500 opened higher around 5,487.03, hitting an intra-day high of 5,490.38. This is due to optimism fueled by strong performances in the technology sector, particularly with Nvidia surpassing Microsoft to become the world's most valuable company.

      Therefore, the positive global market sentiment driven by hopes for interest rate cuts and strong gains in the S&P 500 had a negative impact on the safe-haven appeal of Gold as risk-on sentiment typically reduce demand for safe-haven assets like Gold, causing its price to decline.

      GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
      GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

      Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2331.94, up 0.03%, as it navigates a range-bound environment. The 4-hour chart highlights a pivot point at $2342.00, crucial for assessing the next price movement. Immediate resistance is at $2339.37, followed by $2353.95 and $2369.24. These levels are critical for any bullish advance.

      On the downside, immediate support is found at $2308.16, with further support at $2297.24 and $2287.04. These levels are significant to prevent deeper declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 59, indicating moderate momentum without overbought conditions, suggesting room for further movement.

      The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2320.59 provides substantial support, reinforcing the current price level. The overall outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish above the $2342.00 pivot point.

      A break above this level could enhance bullish momentum, targeting the higher resistance levels. Conversely, a drop below immediate support at $2308.16 might trigger further selling pressure.

      The strategic entry point is set to buy above $2326, with a take profit target at $2342 and a stop loss at $2318. This setup aims to capitalize on potential upward movements while managing downside risks.

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      AUD/USD Price Analysis – June 19, 2024

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Jun 19, 2024
      Audusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around the $0.6672 level, hitting an intraday high of $0.6676. The robust performance was mainly driven by a combination of factors, including concerns over the US economic recovery exacerbated by weaker-than-expected economic data such as the latest US Retail Sales figures. This has prompted market participants to revise down their expectations for US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thereby weakening the USD.

      At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% for the fifth straight meeting, maintaining a confident stance. This decision surprised some analysts who expected a more cautious approach due to global economic uncertainties. The RBA's focus on monitoring inflation closely and its decision not to lower rates soon have boosted investor confidence in the AUD, supporting its recent upward trend.

      Impact of Hawkish Messages from the RBA on AUD/USD

      On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% in its June meeting, extending the longest period without change since 2022. This decision has postponed expectations for rate cuts, bolstering the Australian dollar. The RBA highlighted economic uncertainty and challenges in achieving target inflation levels, signaling a cautious stance. It emphasized vigilance against potential inflationary pressures, indicating a prolonged wait for stable inflation.

      Thus, the RBA's hawkish hold suggests a conservative approach amidst economic uncertainties, influencing market expectations towards a potential easing cycle starting in 2025.

      Therefore, this sentiment has boosted demand for the Australian Dollar, pushing the AUD/USD pair higher as traders recalibrate their expectations for future interest rate differentials between Australia and the United States.

      Weaker-than-Expected US Retail Sales Data and its Impact on AUD/USD

      On the US front, the recent release of weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data has added further support to the AUD/USD pair's upward momentum. The Commerce Department reported a modest 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise. This disappointing economic indicator has raised concerns about the strength of consumer spending, a crucial driver of US economic growth.

      Market participants interpreted the poor Retail Sales figures as a potential signal for softer economic activity in the US, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance in its monetary policy. However ,the comments from Federal Reserve officials, including hints at possible rate cuts later in the year, have further dampened the USD's appeal, contributing to its depreciation against the AUD.

      AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
      AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

      AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

      The AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.66704, up 0.23%, as it navigates within a consolidation phase on the 4-hour chart. The pivot point is set at $0.6697, which is crucial for determining the next price movement.

      Immediate resistance levels are identified at $0.6705, followed by $0.6729 and $0.6754. These resistance levels are key hurdles that need to be surpassed for a sustained bullish momentum.

      On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.6640, with further support at $0.6620 and $0.6586. These support levels are essential in preventing deeper declines and will be closely monitored by market participants.

      The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66, indicating that the pair is nearing overbought conditions, which could signal a potential reversal or consolidation in the near term. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6623, providing a significant support level and reinforcing the bullish outlook.

      The overall outlook for AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish above the $0.6697 pivot point. A break above this level could trigger further buying interest, targeting the higher resistance levels mentioned.

      Conversely, a drop below the immediate support at $0.6640 could lead to increased selling pressure and test lower support levels.

      The recommended entry point is to buy above $0.66616, with a take profit target at $0.66965 and a stop loss at $0.66398.

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      EUR/USD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024

      By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
      Jun 18, 2024
      Eurusd

      Daily Price Outlook

      EUR/USD is presently trading at $1.07198, with market sentiment leaning towards optimism for potential rate cuts as the new trading week begins. Despite Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' cautionary statements hinting that rate cuts might not proceed as quickly as investors hope, the focus remains on the upcoming U.S. economic data for clearer directional cues.

      U.S. Retail Sales to Shape Market Sentiment

      Attention is set on Tuesday's U.S. Retail Sales report, where an increase of 0.3% month-over-month in May is expected, following a flat performance in April. This data point is particularly significant as it may influence Fed policy decisions moving forward. Core Retail Sales, excluding automobiles, are also projected to show a consistent rise of 0.2%.

      Fed Officials Voice Cautious Outlook

      Throughout the week, several Fed officials are slated to speak, with their insights eagerly anticipated by the markets. Recent inflation data suggests a quicker-than-expected easing, yet the Fed has expressed hesitation about hastening rate adjustments.

      The necessity for more comprehensive data before altering monetary policy has been emphasized, reflecting a cautious approach towards economic recovery.

      Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Speeches

      As traders await the U.S. retail sales figures and monitor speeches from various Fed officials, the Dollar Index shows modest gains, trading up by 0.2% at 105.125. However, it remains below the recent 1 1/2-month high of 105.80.

      This week's economic calendar also includes the release of U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Rate, expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape and potential shifts in Fed policy.

      Key Economic Releases:

        This week is pivotal for the EUR/USD pair as it navigates through critical economic releases and central bank communications. These events are likely to dictate short-term market dynamics and potentially set the tone for the currency pair's movements in the upcoming sessions.

        EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
        EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

        EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

        EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.07198. The pivot point at $1.07255 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance is found at $1.07387, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.07577 and $1.07734. These levels need to be breached for a potential bullish reversal. On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.07000. If this level is broken, the next support levels are at $1.06738 and $1.06499.

        The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.07734, while the 200-day EMA is at $1.07706, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.30, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, but closer to the lower end of the spectrum. This implies a potential for further downside if bearish pressure continues.

        The current price action indicates that a break above the immediate resistance at $1.07387 could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $1.07255 may lead to further downside pressure.

        Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $1.07255 is advisable with a take profit target at $1.06738 and a stop loss at $1.07577.

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        GOLD Price Analysis – June 18, 2024

        By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
        Jun 18, 2024
        Gold

        Daily Price Outlook

        Gold price (XAU/USD) experienced some dip-buying during the European session on Tuesday, reversing part of the previous day's modest losses. The incoming US macroeconomic data indicated that inflationary pressures are subsiding, maintaining hopes for the first Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and providing some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

        However, Gold remains confined within a week-long range below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling caution for bullish traders.

        US Dollar and Treasury Yields Influence

        Last week, the Fed adopted a more hawkish stance, with policymakers favoring only one interest rate cut this year. This hawkish outlook supports elevated US Treasury bond yields, reviving demand for the US Dollar (USD) and limiting significant appreciation in Gold prices.

        Additionally, a generally positive risk sentiment might cap the demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. Strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the recent pullback from the all-time peak has concluded.

        Impact of US Dollar Dip-Buying

        On Tuesday, some US Dollar dip-buying emerged, acting as a headwind for Gold prices, though any meaningful slide remains elusive amid expectations of two Fed rate cuts in 2024.

        The Fed's projection of a single interest rate cut this year, compared to three in March, helped US bond yields recover part of last week's losses and allowed the USD to regain positive traction.

        Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker noted that maintaining rates longer will help reduce inflation, adding further pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.

        Key Economic Data and Fed Speeches

        Data released on Friday showed that US import prices fell for the first time in five months in May, along with weaker US consumer and producer prices, indicating subsiding inflation. This keeps hopes alive for the first Fed rate cut in September, followed by another in December.

        Investors are now focused on Tuesday's US economic docket, which includes Retail Sales and Industrial Production data, for short-term trading opportunities during the early North American session.

        Additionally, speeches from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will play a crucial role in influencing USD demand, which, along with broader risk sentiment, should impact Gold prices.

        GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
        GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

        GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

        Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,312.25, with bearish momentum observed on the 2-hour chart. The symmetrical triangle pattern forming suggests potential breakout volatility. The pivot point at $2,319.43 is crucial for determining the next move. Immediate resistance levels are seen at $2,325.03, $2,332.00, and $2,339.37. To confirm a bullish reversal, these resistance levels need to be breached. On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,309.55, with further support levels at $2,300.00 and $2,297.24. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 40.71, indicating bearish sentiment but not yet in oversold territory.

        The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,319.43 is currently acting as a resistance level. The price needs to break above this EMA to signal a potential shift to bullish momentum. The 200-day EMA at $2,331.28 also serves as a significant resistance point that the price needs to surpass to confirm a stronger bullish trend. The current price action suggests that a break above the immediate resistance could signal a bullish move, while a drop below the pivot point of $2,319.43 may lead to further downside pressure. Monitoring these key levels and EMA crossovers will be essential for short-term trading strategies.

        The Fibonacci retracement levels further highlight key areas of interest. A break above the pivot point of $2,319.43 could indicate a bullish move, while a drop below $2,309.55 may suggest further downside pressure. Considering the current technical outlook, a sell position below $2,320 is advisable with a take profit target at $2,300 and a stop loss at $2,332.

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