USD/JPY Price Analysis – Oct 03, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining well-bid around the 146.72 level and hitting an intraday high of 147.24.
The upward movement can be attributed to dovish comments from Prime Minister Ishiba, along with uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which has weakened the Japanese Yen (JPY).
Consequently, the USD/JPY pair is likely to experience upward momentum, reflecting increased demand for the US Dollar amid growing market uncertainty.
Moreover, the US dollar has received support from safe-haven flows due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, further boosting the USD/JPY pair.
Strengthening US Dollar and Its Impact on the USD/JPY Pair
On the US front, the US dollar is gaining strength as recent economic data shows a resilient labor market. This has led to lower expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 65.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut has dropped to 34.6%, down from 57.4% a week ago.
Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, emphasized that the fight against inflation isn’t over. He noted that while a 50 basis point cut in September was justified, risks still exist.
Positive employment trends, such as a reported increase of 143,000 jobs in September, have also contributed to the dollar's strength.
However, while the AiG Industry Index shows slight improvement, it still indicates contraction for the 29th consecutive month, and the AiG Manufacturing PMI has reached its lowest level.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the central bank is not rushing to cut rates further, suggesting that any future rate changes will be modest.
As a result, the strengthening US dollar, supported by solid labor market data and tempered rate cut expectations, is likely to apply further upward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Impact of Japan's Dovish Monetary Policy on the USD/JPY Pair
On the other side, Japan's new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has made clear comments about the country's monetary policy after meeting with Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda.
Ishiba stated, "I do not believe that we are in an environment that would require us to raise interest rates further," which has raised concerns among investors.
Following his remarks, the Japanese Yen (JPY) fell nearly 2% against the US Dollar (USD), marking its biggest drop since February last year.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, clarified that Ishiba did not ask Ueda for specific monetary policy details during their meeting, indicating a cautious approach.
Furthermore, Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, mentioned that Ishiba expects the BoJ to conduct thorough economic assessments before considering any interest rate hikes. Market futures show less than a 50% chance that the BoJ will raise rates by 10 basis points by December.
Meanwhile, projections suggest that interest rates will only reach 0.5% by the end of next year, up from the current 0.25%.
This lack of urgency regarding interest rate increases is likely to continue putting downward pressure on the yen as investors seek stronger returns elsewhere.
Therefore, the dovish comments from Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, coupled with reduced expectations for interest rate hikes, are likely to weaken the Japanese Yen (JPY).
This scenario is expected to support the USD/JPY pair, driving it higher as investors favor the US Dollar (USD).
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The U.S. Dollar (USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory against the Japanese Yen (JPY), currently trading at 146.768, up 0.22% for the session.
The pair’s strength can be attributed to a combination of favorable U.S. economic data and continued monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
The 4-hour chart shows USD/JPY trading above its pivot point of 146.231, with bullish momentum pushing the price towards the immediate resistance level at 147.248. Further resistance is noted at 147.866 and 148.567, where a breakout could spark another leg higher.
Technical indicators reveal a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 70, suggesting that the pair is now approaching overbought territory.
This could result in a short-term pullback or consolidation phase as traders look to lock in profits. On the support side, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 144.045, providing a solid floor that could limit any downward movement.
Immediate support stands at 145.585, followed by additional support levels at 145.104 and 144.609.
A break below 145.585 could see the pair testing the 50 EMA near 144.045, though the overall uptrend remains intact as long as prices hold above the pivot point at 146.231.
Conclusion: With the pair nearing overbought conditions, traders may consider short positions if the price drops below 147.255, targeting 145.620, while placing a stop-loss at 148.227 to limit potential losses.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Uptrend Remains Strong: USD/JPY is trading well above its 50 EMA at 144.045, supporting the bullish bias.
- RSI in Overbought Territory: The RSI at 70 signals potential for a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.
- Critical Resistance at 147.248: A breakout above this level could drive the pair toward 147.866 and 148.567.
The U.S. Dollar (USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory against the Japanese Yen (JPY), currently trading at 146.768, up 0.22% for the session. The pair’s strength can be attributed to a combination of favorable U.S. economic data and continued monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
The 4-hour chart shows USD/JPY trading above its pivot point of 146.231, with bullish momentum pushing the price towards the immediate resistance level at 147.248. Further resistance is noted at 147.866 and 148.567, where a breakout could spark another leg higher.
Technical indicators reveal a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged to 70, suggesting that the pair is now approaching overbought territory. This could result in a short-term pullback or consolidation phase as traders look to lock in profits. On the support side, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at 144.045, providing a solid floor that could limit any downward movement.
Immediate support stands at 145.585, followed by additional support levels at 145.104 and 144.609. A break below 145.585 could see the pair testing the 50 EMA near 144.045, though the overall uptrend remains intact as long as prices hold above the pivot point at 146.231.
Conclusion: With the pair nearing overbought conditions, traders may consider short positions if the price drops below 147.255, targeting 145.620, while placing a stop-loss at 148.227 to limit potential losses.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 147.255
Take Profit – 145.620
Stop Loss – 148.227
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1635/ -$972
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$163/ -$97
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Sep 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a downward trend due to various economic factors and central bank signals.
Traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates further as inflation eases, which has weakened confidence in the US Dollar (USD) and led to its depreciation against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
In the meantime, the sharp drop in the US Consumer Confidence Index, from 105.6 in August to 98.7 in September, reflects this sentiment.
Meanwhile, the comments from Fed officials about potential rate cuts in 2024 have increased uncertainty, putting further downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair as traders await more economic data.
Japanese Yen Faces Downward Pressure Amid BoJ Delays
On the JPY front, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is facing downward pressure primarily due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will postpone further interest rate hikes.
Recent meeting notes from the BoJ showed that members agree on the importance of watching inflation closely. Some even proposed raising rates to 0.25% to lessen monetary support.
However, most members favor a careful approach, expecting interest rates to stay low for a longer time.
This uncertainty is affecting the JPY's value, making it less strong against other currencies, particularly the US Dollar (USD). Traders are waiting for more data to better understand the BoJ's future plans.
However, the market anticipates that the BoJ will maintain its accommodative stance, creating a challenging environment for the currency pair.
Traders are keenly awaiting upcoming inflation data from Tokyo, as it may offer valuable insights into the BoJ's future policy direction and potentially influence the JPY's performance in the near term.
US Dollar Faces Pressure from Rate Cut Speculations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is experiencing additional downward pressure due to increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates about a 50% probability of a total of 75 basis points being cut by the end of the year, which has created uncertainty among investors. Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Adriana Kugler and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have expressed support for additional rate cuts, which could further weaken the US dollar..
This environment of declining interest rates tends to diminish the attractiveness of the US dollar for investors seeking yield, resulting in reduced demand for the currency. Consequently, the expectations surrounding Fed policy shifts are adversely impacting the USD/JPY pair, leading to a challenging landscape for the dollar amidst ongoing market volatility and economic data releases.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is trading slightly higher at 144.877, marking a modest increase of 0.04% for the day. The pair is hovering near a crucial pivot point at 145.398, which could serve as a turning point for future price action.
Immediate resistance is found just above at 145.409, with further resistance levels at 145.973 and 146.514, which could become significant if the current upward momentum persists.
On the downside, immediate support stands at 143.968, followed by deeper supports at 143.475 and 142.910.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at 144.016, is providing strong dynamic support, suggesting the pair will remain buoyed above this level.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66, signaling that the pair is nearing overbought conditions, a potential indicator of short-term exhaustion.
Traders may consider a buy limit at 144.478, targeting the pivot point at 145.398, with a stop loss at 143.978 to mitigate downside risks. The overall trend remains bullish, as long as the price stays above the 50-EMA.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY is approaching key resistance at 145.409, with a pivot point at 145.398.
- Immediate support at 143.968, reinforced by the 50-EMA at 144.016.
- RSI at 66 indicates the pair is nearing overbought territory, suggesting caution.
The USD/JPY pair is trading slightly higher at 144.877, marking a modest increase of 0.04% for the day. The pair is hovering near a crucial pivot point at 145.398, which could serve as a turning point for future price action.
Immediate resistance is found just above at 145.409, with further resistance levels at 145.973 and 146.514, which could become significant if the current upward momentum persists.
On the downside, immediate support stands at 143.968, followed by deeper supports at 143.475 and 142.910. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at 144.016, is providing strong dynamic support, suggesting the pair will remain buoyed above this level.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66, signaling that the pair is nearing overbought conditions, a potential indicator of short-term exhaustion.
Traders may consider a buy limit at 144.478, targeting the pivot point at 145.398, with a stop loss at 143.978 to mitigate downside risks. The overall trend remains bullish, as long as the price stays above the 50-EMA.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 144.478
Take Profit – 145.398
Stop Loss – 143.978
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$920/ -$500
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$92/ -$50
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY is bullish above 142.44, with resistance targets at 143.17 and 143.97.
- 50-day EMA at 141.22 offers strong support, keeping the trend positive in the short term.
- RSI at 54 indicates neutral momentum with the potential for further gains if resistance is broken.
USD/JPY is trading at 142.32, up 0.05%, indicating a mild upward trend as the pair holds above key support levels. The immediate resistance is noted at 142.44, with further resistance at 143.17 and 143.97. On the downside, immediate support is at 140.46, followed by 139.70 and 138.95, marking significant levels where the price could potentially reverse.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 141.22 acts as critical support, providing stability for near-term bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54, reflecting neutral-to-bullish momentum, signaling that the market still has room for further upward movement.
A break above 142.44 could confirm a bullish bias, paving the way toward the next resistance level at 143.17. However, if USD/JPY falls below 140.46, the short-term trend could turn bearish, testing the lower support at 139.70.
The broader outlook for USD/JPY remains influenced by the divergent monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. While the Fed signals caution after its recent rate adjustments, the Bank of Japan maintains its dovish stance, providing continued support for the dollar against the yen.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 141.895
Take Profit – 143.184
Stop Loss – 141.270
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1289/ -$625
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$12/ -$62
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Sep 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has recently seen a strong upward movement, reaching 143.55, which represents about 0.90% increase for the day. This rise is primarily due to a rebound in the US Dollar (USD), bolstered by a major interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Investors are keenly observing the USD/JPY pair as it capitalizes on the USD's strength and evolving market expectations about future monetary policies.
Impact of the Fed's First Interest Rate Cut in Four Years on the USD/JPY Pair
As we mentioned above, the Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut in over four years, reducing rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75%-5.00%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described this cut as a necessary measure to address easing price rises and growing concerns in the job market.
Despite this aggressive cut, the USD experienced some volatility, fluctuating between gains and losses as investors adjusted to the news.
However, the recent rate cut by the Fed has created a mixed impact on the USD/JPY pair as the move initially sparked some market fluctuations, but the USD eventually gained ground against the Japanese Yen.
As a result, the USD Index (DXY) recovered from its multi-month lows and climbed back above the 101.00 mark. However, the Fed's dovish stance and the possibility of further rate cuts later this year could limit the USD's potential for further gains and create some challenges for the USD/JPY pair.
Bank of Japan's Expected Interest Rate Decision and Its Potential Impact on USD/JPY
Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting ending on Friday. Most economists believe the BoJ will maintain the current rates, with the possibility of a hike later in the year.
This cautious approach is seen as a way to maintain economic stability while waiting for clearer global economic signals.
While the BoJ’s decision to hold rates steady might not cause immediate shifts, the anticipated narrowing of the interest rate gap between the US and Japan could eventually benefit the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the USD.
Investors will be closely watching for any hints of future policy changes from the BoJ that could impact the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 142.32, up 0.05%, indicating a mild upward trend as the pair holds above key support levels. The immediate resistance is noted at 142.44, with further resistance at 143.17 and 143.97.
On the downside, immediate support is at 140.46, followed by 139.70 and 138.95, marking significant levels where the price could potentially reverse.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 141.22 acts as critical support, providing stability for near-term bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54, reflecting neutral-to-bullish momentum, signaling that the market still has room for further upward movement.
A break above 142.44 could confirm a bullish bias, paving the way toward the next resistance level at 143.17. However, if USD/JPY falls below 140.46, the short-term trend could turn bearish, testing the lower support at 139.70.
The broader outlook for USD/JPY remains influenced by the divergent monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
While the Fed signals caution after its recent rate adjustments, the Bank of Japan maintains its dovish stance, providing continued support for the dollar against the yen.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at 143.51; a breakout could lead to gains toward 144.24.
- Key support at 141.69; a breach could trigger further downside toward 140.70.
- USD/JPY remains supported above its 50-day EMA at 142.61, signaling continued bullish momentum.
USD/JPY is currently trading at 142.817, up by 0.32%, as the pair continues to strengthen alongside the U.S. Dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the price remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.61, which provides key support, keeping the bullish momentum intact.
The pair has shown some consolidation but maintains an overall upward trend, with potential for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
Immediate resistance lies at 143.51. A break above this level could open the door for further upside, targeting higher resistance zones at 144.24 and 145.16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, signaling moderate bullish momentum, leaving room for additional upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at 141.69. If this level fails, the next support sits at 140.70, with a potential deeper pullback toward 139.78 if selling pressure intensifies.
A break below these levels could signal a bearish reversal, though the current uptrend is supported by the 50 EMA at 142.61.
In conclusion, USD/JPY maintains a bullish outlook as long as it stays above the pivot point at 142.36.
Traders should watch for a break above 143.51, which could trigger further gains, while a fall below 141.69 could signal a near-term bearish shift.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 142.350
Take Profit – 143.500
Stop Loss – 141.650
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1150/ -$700
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$115/ -$70
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Sep 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair broke its two-day losing streak, trading around 142.90.
This recovery can be attributed to rising odds of a smaller interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, which has supported the US Dollar (USD).
The recent remarks by Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura, stating that there is "no preset idea on the pace of further rate hikes," kept the Japanese Yen (JPY) subdued.
Impact of BoJ’s Gradual Rate Hikes and USD Strength on USD/JPY:
The BoJ's gradual approach to rate hikes contrasts with the more aggressive policies of the US and Europe. While Tamura’s comments reinforced the notion of a slower tightening cycle in Japan, the exact timing of when rates will reach 1% remains dependent on Japan’s economic and price conditions.
Meanwhile, the USD gained strength due to diminishing expectations of a larger Fed rate cut, contributing to the USD/JPY rally.
US CPI Report and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive USD/JPY:
On the US front, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline inflation dropping to a three-year low of 2.5% year-on-year. Despite this, core inflation remained steady, reducing the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Fed.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has sharply declined to 15%, with markets now fully anticipating a 25 bps cut at the September meeting.
This outlook has provided upward momentum for USD/JPY, as expectations of gradual monetary easing by the Fed bolster the USD against the Yen.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is currently trading at 142.817, up by 0.32%, as the pair continues to strengthen alongside the U.S. Dollar.
On the 4-hour chart, the price remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.61, which provides key support, keeping the bullish momentum intact.
The pair has shown some consolidation but maintains an overall upward trend, with potential for further gains if resistance levels are cleared.
Immediate resistance lies at 143.51. A break above this level could open the door for further upside, targeting higher resistance zones at 144.24 and 145.16.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, signaling moderate bullish momentum, leaving room for additional upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at 141.69. If this level fails, the next support sits at 140.70, with a potential deeper pullback toward 139.78 if selling pressure intensifies.
A break below these levels could signal a bearish reversal, though the current uptrend is supported by the 50 EMA at 142.61.
In conclusion, USD/JPY maintains a bullish outlook as long as it stays above the pivot point at 142.36. Traders should watch for a break above 143.51, which could trigger further gains, while a fall below 141.69 could signal a near-term bearish shift.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 29, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair fluctuated around the 144.60 level. This range-bound behavior is expected to change with the upcoming US PCE inflation report and Japanese economic data.
The US PCE report could drive significant movement in the USD depending on the inflation figures.
Additionally, anticipated policy shifts from the Bank of Japan and the release of Tokyo CPI data may bolster the JPY. Traders are closely monitoring these factors to predict the future direction of the USD/JPY pair.
Market Focus: US PCE Inflation Report and Fed Policy Speculation Amid Upcoming Data Releases
On the US front, the market's focus is on the PCE inflation report, which is anticipated to drive the next major move in the US Dollar (USD).
The report will significantly influence speculation regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a strong expectation for the Fed to pivot towards policy normalization in September.
However, traders are divided on the magnitude of potential interest rate cuts, with the 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing tool showing a 34.5% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) cut, while others favor a 25 bps reduction.
In addition, investors are closely monitoring revised estimates for Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending August 23.
The jobless claims data is particularly important as the Fed is increasingly concerned about weakening labor market conditions.
Japanese Yen Boosted by BoJ Rate Hike Expectations and Anticipation of Tokyo CPI Data
On the Japanese front, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are bolstering the Japanese Yen (JPY). BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino reaffirmed the bank’s commitment to adjusting monetary easing if economic activity and prices align with projections.
Additionally, investors are awaiting the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, scheduled for release on Friday, with forecasts predicting a steady 2.2% growth in the CPI, excluding Fresh Food.
USD/JPY - Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 144.518, down by 0.06% as it flirts with the key pivot point set at 144.699.
This level will be crucial in determining the pair’s next move. The pair is trading near its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 144.505, which is acting as a critical support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 50, indicating a balanced market without a clear momentum bias at this point.
If the pair fails to hold above the 144.699 pivot point, immediate support is expected at 143.686, followed by deeper levels at 142.903 and 142.119. A sustained drop below these support levels could intensify the bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.
Traders may consider entering a short position below 144.757, targeting 143.717 as the take-profit level while placing a stop-loss at 145.276 to manage risk.
On the upside, resistance starts at 145.303, a level that needs to be breached for any bullish momentum to gain traction. If the pair manages to break this resistance, the next targets would be 146.118 and 147.088.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Neutral Bias: Trading around the 50-day EMA at 144.505, with RSI at 50 indicating balanced momentum.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at 145.303, with potential targets at 146.118 and 147.088.
- Support Levels: Key support at 143.686, with deeper levels at 142.903 and 142.119.
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 144.518, down by 0.06% as it flirts with the key pivot point set at 144.699.
This level will be crucial in determining the pair’s next move. The pair is trading near its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 144.505, which is acting as a critical support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 50, indicating a balanced market without a clear momentum bias at this point.
If the pair fails to hold above the 144.699 pivot point, immediate support is expected at 143.686, followed by deeper levels at 142.903 and 142.119.
A sustained drop below these support levels could intensify the bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.
Traders may consider entering a short position below 144.757, targeting 143.717 as the take-profit level while placing a stop-loss at 145.276 to manage risk.
On the upside, resistance starts at 145.303, a level that needs to be breached for any bullish momentum to gain traction.
If the pair manages to break this resistance, the next targets would be 146.118 and 147.088.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 144.757
Take Profit – 143.717
Stop Loss – 145.276
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1040/ -$519
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$104/ -$51