Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 15, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 15, 20243 min

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable retreat into the 1.0800 range, a departure from its recent stance in the 1.0900, largely influenced by recent U.S. economic indicators. These indicators have cast doubts on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) pace of interest rate reductions.

U.S. Economic Data Signals a Warmer Economy

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February reported an unexpected 1.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the anticipated 1.1% and January's revised 1.0% rise. This, coupled with lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims and a modest 0.6% increase in Retail Sales, underscores the persistent economic heat in the U.S., suggesting prolonged higher interest rates—a scenario that dampens EUR/USD prospects while buoying the U.S. Dollar due to its appeal for foreign capital inflow.

Diverse Views from ECB Policymakers on Interest Rate Cuts

A flurry of public appearances by European Central Bank (ECB) officials has revealed divergent opinions on the timing of interest rate reductions. While ECB President Christine Lagarde pinpointed June for a reevaluation of rates, comments from the Bank of France's Francois Villeroy de Galhau introduced the possibility of an April cut, indicating a split within the ECB between those favoring earlier versus summer rate cuts.

Subsequent remarks from ECB officials, including Robert Holzmann, Yannis Stournaras, Klaas Knot, and Vice-President Luis de Guindos, further highlight the debate over the ECB's rate cut timeline. Stournaras's support for a spring rate reduction and Knot's June prediction, alongside de Guindos's anticipation of decisive information by June, reflect the ongoing deliberation on ECB's monetary policy path.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

On March 15, the EUR/USD pair witnessed a subtle decrement, registering a 0.09% fall to conclude at 1.08734. This minor shift underscores the currency pair's current predicament as it grapples with sustaining momentum amidst the ebbs and flows of market sentiment. Nudging slightly below the pivotal point of 1.0902, the EUR/USD now teeters at a critical juncture, poised for either resurgence or further decline based on forthcoming market cues.

The set resistance levels at 1.0930, escalating to 1.0966 and further stretching to 1.1010, mark significant hurdles that must be overcome to signal a shift towards a bullish outlook. Conversely, the terrain below is scaffolded by immediate support at 1.0842, extending down to 1.0800 and 1.0762, which stand ready to arrest any additional dips, safeguarding the pair from deeper retractions.

The trading environment is punctuated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping to 30, a marker possibly indicating the pair's drift into oversold territory. This, coupled with the pair's brush against the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0904, paints a nuanced picture of the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The confluence of these technical indicators, alongside the pair's price action relative to the pivot point, encapsulates the delicate balance steering EUR/USD's short-term trajectory.

In navigating this landscape, a prudent strategy emerges: initiating sells below 1.08993 with an objective to lock in gains at 1.08420, while placing a stop loss at 1.09333 to curtail potential losses.

Related News

- GOLD Price Analysis – March 15, 2024

- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 15, 2024

- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 13, 2024a



24/7 live support, lightning fast withdrawals, guaranteed safe and reliable trading platforms with a true ECN broker.