Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 26, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD is trading at $1.08577, up 0.12%, with the pivot point at $1.0836.

- RSI at 48 indicates a neutral sentiment, suggesting potential for movement in either direction.

- The 50-day EMA at $1.0883 acts as a resistance level, reinforcing the cautious bullish outlook above $1.0836.

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at $1.08577, reflecting a modest increase of 0.12%. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, several key levels and technical indicators emerge, providing insight into potential price movements.

The pivot point is identified at $1.0836, serving as a crucial level that could determine the pair's next direction. Immediate resistance is observed at $1.0877, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0912 and $1.0949. These levels represent potential barriers for any upward movement in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0806, followed by $1.0777 and $1.0753. These support levels are critical in preventing further declines and could act as bounce points if the pair faces selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48, suggesting a neutral market sentiment. An RSI near 50 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, implying potential for movement in either direction based on market catalysts.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0883, slightly above the current price. The proximity of the price to the 50 EMA suggests potential resistance if the pair attempts to climb higher. The 50 EMA is a commonly watched indicator that traders use to gauge medium-term trend direction.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish above the pivot point of $1.0836. Traders are advised to consider buying above $1.08354, with a take profit target of $1.08869 and a stop loss at $1.08120.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08354

Take Profit – 1.08869

Stop Loss – 1.08120

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$234

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$23

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 26, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 26, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair gained positive traction, turning bullish around the 1.0857 level and reaching an intra-day high of 1.0861.

This upward movement is primarily due to the weakening US dollar, which has been under pressure amid expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts later this year. Softer-than-expected US inflation figures have intensified these expectations, potentially leading to lower interest rates and further weakening the dollar.

However, the EUR/USD pair's gains may be limited by ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone. Germany's PMI data recently showed contraction, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to cut rates further, which could also put downward pressure on the Euro.

Additionally, the Euro faces headwinds from a significant tax relief package, impacting its overall value.

Weak German Economy and ECB Rate Cut Expectations Pressure EUR/USD Pair

On the EUR front, the Eurozone is facing a tough time as Germany, its largest economy, struggles with economic contraction. In July, the German Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 48.7 from 50.4, signaling a decline in private sector activity.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, HCOB’s Chief Economist, warned that Germany’s economy is shrinking, particularly due to a sharp drop in manufacturing output. This weak performance is affecting the Euro, compounded by expectations of two more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

ECB officials are considering these cuts to boost the economy, especially as inflation is projected to hit 2% by 2025.

Meanwhile, Germany’s 30 billion euros tax relief plan shows the government’s concern over low demand. The upcoming Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data will be crucial in determining the timing of future ECB rate cuts.

Therefore, the weak German economy and anticipated ECB rate cuts are likely to weaken the Euro. As Germany struggles with contraction and inflation expectations shift, the EUR/USD pair could see downward pressure, with the Euro losing ground against the US dollar.

Impact of US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Speculation on EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing its momentum as investors await the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data for June, set for release at 12:30 GMT.

Economists forecast that inflation will ease slightly to 2.5% year-over-year in June from 2.6% previously, with a steady 0.1% monthly increase. This data will play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year.

Currently, there is strong speculation that the Fed will cut rates in September. If inflation figures are softer than expected, it would likely support the case for these cuts, while stubbornly high inflation could weaken this expectation.

The US dollar has shown subdued performance as traders remain cautious, knowing that the Fed is expected to keep its key rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% during its July 31 meeting.

Therefore, the subdued US dollar and anticipated Fed rate cuts could benefit the EUR/USD pair. Softer inflation data might reinforce expectations for September rate cuts, potentially strengthening the Euro against the Dollar.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading at $1.08577, reflecting a modest increase of 0.12%. Analyzing the 4-hour chart, several key levels and technical indicators emerge, providing insight into potential price movements.

The pivot point is identified at $1.0836, serving as a crucial level that could determine the pair's next direction. Immediate resistance is observed at $1.0877, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0912 and $1.0949. These levels represent potential barriers for any upward movement in the short term.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0806, followed by $1.0777 and $1.0753. These support levels are critical in preventing further declines and could act as bounce points if the pair faces selling pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48, suggesting a neutral market sentiment. An RSI near 50 indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, implying potential for movement in either direction based on market catalysts.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0883, slightly above the current price. The proximity of the price to the 50 EMA suggests potential resistance if the pair attempts to climb higher. The 50 EMA is a commonly watched indicator that traders use to gauge medium-term trend direction.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for EUR/USD remains cautiously bullish above the pivot point of $1.0836. Traders are advised to consider buying above $1.08354, with a take profit target of $1.08869 and a stop loss at $1.08120.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 24, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD trading at $1.0828; pivot point at $1.0847.

- Immediate resistance levels: $1.0878, $1.0912, $1.0949; support levels: $1.0806, $1.0777, $1.0753.

- RSI at 25, 50-day EMA at $1.0894; sell below $1.08474 with a stop loss at $1.08724.

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0828, reflecting the latest market movements. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial technical levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is positioned at $1.0847, serving as a central level around which price action is likely to oscillate.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.0878, $1.0912, and $1.0949. These levels represent potential selling points where the market may encounter resistance if it attempts to rise.

On the downside, immediate support levels are found at $1.0806, $1.0777, and $1.0753. These levels are critical as they indicate potential areas where buying interest may emerge, preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 25, suggesting that the market is in oversold territory.

This indicates a potential for a rebound if buyers step in at lower levels. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0894, acting as a dynamic resistance level that traders should watch for potential price reactions.

Given the current technical setup, the recommendation is to sell below $1.08474. The take profit level is set at $1.08068, providing a reasonable downside target. A stop loss is advised at $1.08724 to manage risk, protecting against potential upward reversals.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $1.0847.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08474

Take Profit – 1.08068

Stop Loss – 1.08724

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$406/ -$250

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$40/ -$25

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 24, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 24, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to gain positive traction, remaining under pressure around the 1.0845 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.0825.

The downward trend can be attributed to the preliminary Eurozone Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) PMI report for July, which showed an unexpected easing in composite numbers. This was driven by a slowdown in both manufacturing and services, putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

The weak economic activity in the Eurozone is expected to boost expectations of more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Furthermore, the renewed strength of the US dollar, supported by recent developments in the US presidential elections, was another key factor affecting the EUR/USD pair.

However, growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle in September could limit gains in the US dollar and help the EUR/USD pair mitigate its losses.

Eurozone Economic Weakness and ECB Rate Cut Expectations Pressure EUR/USD Pair

On the EUR front, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates two more times by the end of the year due to weak economic activity in the Eurozone. The preliminary Eurozone Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for July showed a slowdown in both manufacturing and services.

The HCOB Composite PMI decreased to 50.1, just above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, falling short of investor expectations of 51.1. Manufacturing contracted to 45.6, while services expanded at a slower pace of 51.9.

This in turn, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, noted that weak demand in Germany's manufacturing sector is dragging down overall private sector output.

In contrast, French service providers increased activity due to preparations for the Olympic Games.

Despite this, input prices in the services sector rose at a faster rate, and selling prices remained steady, offering no relief to ECB policymakers. Traders currently expect the ECB to deliver two more rate cuts this year, aligning with some ECB officials' views.

Therefore, the weak Eurozone economic data and expectations for additional ECB rate cuts pressure the EUR/USD pair. Despite increased activity in French services, the overall slowdown and rising input prices contribute to the euro's struggles against the stronger US dollar.

Strong US Dollar and Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts Impact EUR/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar managed to stop its bearish bias and regained its positive traction, edging higher near a weekly high of around 104.50.

This strength is due to investor interest ahead of the US presidential elections in November, with market experts predicting a win for Donald Trump despite the Democratic nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris. Additionally, the US dollar's performance is influenced by anticipation of significant upcoming economic data releases.

On the data front, investors are closely watching the preliminary US S&P Global PMI data for July, which is expected to show modest expansion in both manufacturing and services.

The main triggers for the US dollar this week will be the preliminary Q2 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, respectively. The US economy is projected to have grown by 1.9% in Q2, up from the previous 1.4%.

Investors are particularly focused on the core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, to assess the timeline for potential interest rate cuts. Markets currently anticipate these rate cuts to begin in September.

Therefore, the strong US dollar, driven by investor interest ahead of the presidential elections and anticipation of significant economic data releases, pressures the EUR/USD pair. However, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in September may limit the pair's losses.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0828, reflecting the latest market movements. The 4-hour chart highlights crucial technical levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is positioned at $1.0847, serving as a central level around which price action is likely to oscillate.

Immediate resistance levels are identified at $1.0878, $1.0912, and $1.0949. These levels represent potential selling points where the market may encounter resistance if it attempts to rise.

On the downside, immediate support levels are found at $1.0806, $1.0777, and $1.0753. These levels are critical as they indicate potential areas where buying interest may emerge, preventing further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 25, suggesting that the market is in oversold territory. This indicates a potential for a rebound if buyers step in at lower levels.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0894, acting as a dynamic resistance level that traders should watch for potential price reactions.

Given the current technical setup, the recommendation is to sell below $1.08474. The take profit level is set at $1.08068, providing a reasonable downside target. A stop loss is advised at $1.08724 to manage risk, protecting against potential upward reversals.

In conclusion, the technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests a bearish sentiment below the pivot point of $1.0847.

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Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 22, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 22, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward trend, trading robustly around 1.0891 and reaching an intra-day peak of 1.0903.

This rally was bolstered by a weakening US dollar, which lost momentum due to recent US political developments and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle potentially beginning in September.

Additionally, the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and refrain from signaling any imminent rate cuts at its upcoming meeting further supported the euro, contributing to the gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Moving ahead, investors are keeping an eye on German Retail Sales and the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, both due later today. Meanwhile, they are watching for signals about the Federal Reserve's future actions, which will impact dollar prices.

Political Shifts and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weaken the US Dollar, Supporting EUR/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar starts the new week on a bearish note due to recent political developments. US President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to step down from the 2024 Presidential election raises the probability of Donald Trump becoming the next president.

This political shift, combined with expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September, has made investors more willing to take risks.

As a result, the US dollar, usually seen as a safe-haven asset, loses strength and supports the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the weak US labor market exert selling pressure on the dollar.

However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows less than a 5% probability of a move at the July meeting, but a nearly full rate cut is expected in September. New York Fed President John Williams indicated a rate cut could be warranted in the coming months, but not in July.

ECB’s Steady Rate Policy and Cautious Outlook Boost EUR/USD

On the other hand, the upticks in the EUR/USD pair are further bolstered by the ECB left interest rates unchanged last week and gave no hints about rate cuts at its next meeting.

ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that although inflation in the Eurozone is getting better, high rates need to be maintained for now. The likelihood of a rate cut in September has decreased from 73% to 65%.

This cautious approach by the ECB is expected to support the euro against the US dollar. In short, the euro benefits from the ECB’s decision to hold rates steady and its careful, data-based strategy.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08846, reflecting a modest gain of 0.09%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is situated at $1.0876, which acts as a crucial marker for market sentiment.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0904, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0924 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0861, followed by stronger support at $1.0844 and $1.0825.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, suggesting that the currency pair is in neutral territory. This indicates that there is no immediate overbought or oversold condition, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0888, slightly above the current price, hinting at a potential bearish trend if the price remains below this level.

Given the technical setup, a cautious approach is advised. A sell entry is recommended below the pivot point at $1.08953.

The suggested take profit level is $1.08603, aligning with the immediate support level. To mitigate risk, a stop loss should be placed at $1.0920, just above the next resistance level, to guard against unexpected upward movements.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 22, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD is trading at $1.08846, with immediate support at $1.0861 and resistance at $1.0904.

- RSI at 44 indicates a neutral stance, allowing for potential moves in either direction.

- Recommended trade setup: Sell below $1.08953, take profit at $1.08603, stop loss at $1.0920.

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08846, reflecting a modest gain of 0.09%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is situated at $1.0876, which acts as a crucial marker for market sentiment.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0904, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0924 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0861, followed by stronger support at $1.0844 and $1.0825.

Technical indicators provide a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, suggesting that the currency pair is in neutral territory. This indicates that there is no immediate overbought or oversold condition, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0888, slightly above the current price, hinting at a potential bearish trend if the price remains below this level.

Given the technical setup, a cautious approach is advised. A sell entry is recommended below the pivot point at $1.08953. The suggested take profit level is $1.08603, aligning with the immediate support level. To mitigate risk, a stop loss should be placed at $1.0920, just above the next resistance level, to guard against unexpected upward movements.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08953

Take Profit – 1.08603

Stop Loss – 1.0920

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$350/ -$250

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$25

EUR/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 19, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD trading at $1.08864, down 0.07%, with a neutral to slightly bearish outlook.

- RSI at 42, indicating a slight bearish sentiment.

- Immediate support at $1.0861; key resistance at $1.0909.

The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08864, reflecting a modest decline of 0.07%. The 4-hour chart indicates critical levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is set at $1.0920, serving as a key indicator for potential price movements.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0909, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0928 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.0861, followed by $1.0844 and $1.0825.

Technical indicators suggest a cautious sentiment in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, indicating a slight bearish tilt but not yet in oversold territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0880, just below the current price, acting as a potential support level.

Given the technical setup, traders might consider placing a buy order above the 50-day EMA at $1.08805 to capitalize on potential upward momentum.

The suggested trade setup includes an entry price above $1.08805, a take profit target at $1.09199, and a stop loss at $1.08598. This strategy aims to leverage a rebound while maintaining a controlled risk profile.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08805

Take Profit – 1.09199

Stop Loss – 1.08598

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$394/ -$207

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$20

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 19, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 19, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend, settling around 1.0884 and hitting an intraday low of 1.0876.

This decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by growing speculation that the Republican Party might win the upcoming US Presidential elections.

Additionally, the EUR/USD pair's losses were exacerbated by comments from ECB official Villeroy, who suggested that two more rate cuts this year might be appropriate. This outlook weighed on the euro, further contributing to the pair's decline.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Rising Unemployment, Potentially Impacting EUR/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is gaining strength even though investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting interest rates in September, as they believe inflation is moving closer to the 2% target.

Policymakers, however, are seeking more conclusive data before making a decision. The speculation around Fed rate cuts increased following June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which revealed a return to disinflation.

Both annual headline and core CPI slowed more than expected, with monthly headline inflation declining for the first time in over four years. Additionally, easing conditions in the US labor market have further bolstered expectations for rate cuts.

On the data front, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.1% in June, the highest level since November 2021. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 reached 243,000, surpassing both the expected 230,000 and the previous week’s 223,000. This rise in claims suggests more people are seeking unemployment benefits than anticipated.

Therefore, the bullish US dollar amid rising unemployment and expectations of Fed rate cuts could weigh on the EUR/USD pair, potentially causing the euro to depreciate against the dollar.

ECB's Uncertain Rate Cut Outlook and Lower Growth Projections May Weaken Euro

On the EUR front, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde avoiding any firm commitment to future rate cuts.

However, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that markets expect two more rate cuts this year, with possible policy tightening starting in September and continuing in December.

The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters revealed that price pressures are expected to remain around 2.4%, returning to 2.0% by 2025. The growth target for 2025 was revised down to 0.7% from the previous estimate of 0.5%.

Therefore, the ECB's uncertain stance on rate cuts and lower growth projections may weaken the euro, potentially leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair as market expectations shift.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08864, reflecting a modest decline of 0.07%. The 4-hour chart indicates critical levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is set at $1.0920, serving as a key indicator for potential price movements.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0909, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0928 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.0861, followed by $1.0844 and $1.0825.

Technical indicators suggest a cautious sentiment in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, indicating a slight bearish tilt but not yet in oversold territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0880, just below the current price, acting as a potential support level.

Given the technical setup, traders might consider placing a buy order above the 50-day EMA at $1.08805 to capitalize on potential upward momentum.

The suggested trade setup includes an entry price above $1.08805, a take profit target at $1.09199, and a stop loss at $1.08598. This strategy aims to leverage a rebound while maintaining a controlled risk profile.

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EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 17, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 17, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining well-bid around the 1.0937 level and hitting an intraday high of 1.0945.

The upward movement can be attributed to the weakening US dollar, which lost its bullish traction despite better-than-expected Retail Sales data reported by the US Census Bureau for June on Tuesday.

The decline in the US dollar was largely driven by heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts in September.

On the other side, the ECB's stance on interest rates and weakening economic sentiment in Germany are likely to pressure the EUR/USD pair. Expectations of further rate cuts and economic concerns could lead to euro depreciation against the US dollar as investors seek safer assets.

Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations and US Retail Sales on EUR/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure recently as market participants expect potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September. This sentiment has led US Treasury bond yields to hover around multi-month lows.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials, Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have suggested that inflation is nearing their target levels, bolstering expectations for forthcoming rate reductions. As a result, traders are factoring in the likelihood of multiple rate cuts before year-end.

In recent economic data, monthly Retail Sales held steady, meeting expectations, as increased sales in core goods offset sluggish demand for automobiles. Moreover, May's sales were upwardly revised to 0.3% from 0.1%.

These figures indicate a resilient consumer sector, supporting the overall economic outlook. However, despite these positive indicators, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts commencing in September remain unchanged.

Therefore, the expectation of Fed rate cuts has weakened the US dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair, which has shown resilience amid steady US retail sales and revised upward figures.

ECB Policy and German Economic Sentiment Impact on EUR/USD

On the other side, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to maintain unchanged interest rates, with investors closely monitoring for hints regarding future rate adjustments.

In June, the ECB shifted away from its previously tight monetary policy stance due to easing inflation concerns stemming from pandemic-related stimulus measures.

Officials foresee inflation stabilizing near 2% by next year, though current pressures may persist into 2023. Market sentiment leans towards two additional rate cuts in 2024.

Meanwhile, Germany's economic sentiment, as gauged by the ZEW Survey, sharply declined to 41.8 in July, reflecting anxieties over weak domestic and international demand, affecting the Eurozone's largest economy.

Therefore, the expected ECB stance and economic sentiment in Germany could pressure the EUR/USD pair, weakening the euro against the US dollar as markets anticipate further rate cuts and economic uncertainties in the Eurozone.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0904, showing modest upward momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels that could influence market direction. The pivot point is set at $1.0932, serving as a key level for potential trend shifts.

Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0923, followed by $1.0940 and $1.0964. These resistance levels indicate potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0861, with subsequent support levels at $1.0838 and $1.0817. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating that the market is in neutral territory but showing signs of upward momentum.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0858, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.

In conclusion, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.0932. Traders are advised to buy above $1.08940, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.09323 and setting a stop loss at $1.08722.

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0904, showing modest upward momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels that could influence market direction. The pivot point is set at $1.0932, serving as a key level for potential trend shifts. Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0923, followed by $1.0940 and $1.0964.

These resistance levels indicate potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0861, with subsequent support levels at $1.0838 and $1.0817. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating that the market is in neutral territory but showing signs of upward momentum.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0858, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.

In conclusion, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.0932. Traders are advised to buy above $1.08940, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.09323 and setting a stop loss at $1.08722.

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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 17, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD is trading at $1.0904 with a bullish outlook above $1.0932.

- Immediate resistance levels are $1.0923, $1.0940, and $1.0964.

- Immediate support levels are $1.0861, $1.0838, and $1.0817.

EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0904, showing modest upward momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels that could influence market direction. The pivot point is set at $1.0932, serving as a key level for potential trend shifts. Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0923, followed by $1.0940 and $1.0964.

These resistance levels indicate potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0861, with subsequent support levels at $1.0838 and $1.0817. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating that the market is in neutral territory but showing signs of upward momentum.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0858, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.

In conclusion, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.0932. Traders are advised to buy above $1.08940, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.09323 and setting a stop loss at $1.08722.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08940

Take Profit – 1.09323

Stop Loss – 1.08722

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$383/ -$218

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$38/ -$21

EUR/USD