Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 18, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD trades at $0.67391, up 0.13%, showing modest gains amid market stability.

- RSI at 48 indicates neutral conditions; potential for either upward or downward movements.

- Buy above $0.67168 with take profit at $0.67595 and stop loss at $0.66953.

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.67391, up 0.13%, reflecting a modest uptick amidst a broader market stability. The 4-hour chart reveals critical levels that traders should monitor. The pivot point is set at $0.6745, indicating a pivotal area for potential price action shifts.

Immediate resistance stands at $0.6760, followed by stronger resistance at $0.6778 and $0.6799. Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.6716, with further support levels at $0.6702 and $0.6685.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, suggesting a neutral market sentiment with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This positioning implies potential for either upward or downward movements depending on forthcoming economic data and market reactions.

Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6750, slightly above the current price, indicating a need for a sustained move above this level to confirm a bullish trend.

For traders, a strategic entry point would be above $0.67168, aiming for a take profit level at $0.67595. Setting a stop loss at $0.66953 is advisable to mitigate potential downside risks. This approach leverages the modest bullish momentum while ensuring protection against unexpected market shifts.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67168

Take Profit – 0.67595

Stop Loss – 0.66953

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$427/ -$215

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$21

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 18, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 18, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the renewed strength of the US dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair was able to maintain its upward trend and remained well-bid around the 0.6736 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6744.

The reason for this upward rally can be attributed to the previously released stronger domestic jobs report, which supports the case for another possible rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

This underpinned the Australian currency. Additionally, the risk-on sentiment in the market was seen as another key factor that underpinned the riskier Australian dollar and contributed to the AUD/USD pair's gains.

On the other hand, the US dollar managed to stop its early-day losses and gained positive traction, which was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the AUD/USD pair. Meanwhile, the rising economic headwinds in China, along with falling copper prices, also capped gains in the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD Supported by Stronger Jobs Report Despite Higher Unemployment Rate

On the AUD front, its rise is backed by a stronger domestic jobs report, suggesting the potential for another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Although the mixed data hasn't significantly changed expectations for the RBA's next policy move, it has modestly boosted the Australian Dollar and supported the AUD/USD pair.

On the data front, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released figures this Thursday indicating that the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.1% in June, slightly higher than both expectations and the previous 4.0% figure.

However, this disappointment was mitigated by a surprise uptick in the number of employed individuals, rising from 39.7K in May to 50.2K in June, well surpassing the anticipated 20.0K increase according to consensus estimates.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair was modestly supported by a stronger jobs report despite a higher unemployment rate. The unexpected increase in employed individuals helped offset concerns, influencing the pair's stability.

Impact of Fed's Inflation Optimism and Rate Cut Speculation on USD and AUD/USD Pair

On the US economic front, the Federal Reserve has expressed optimism regarding inflation reaching its targets, which has led to speculation about potential interest rate cuts.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin have noted a moderation in inflationary pressures, prompting market expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut in September to rise sharply to 93.5%, up from 69.7% previously.

Recent economic data shows that US Retail Sales for June held steady at $704.3 billion, meeting market expectations after a revised 0.3% increase in May.

Looking forward, upcoming reports are expected to show a rise in weekly jobless claims, alongside a moderate improvement in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.

As a result, the Federal Reserve's positive outlook on inflation and potential rate cuts has bolstered the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on AUD/USD.

Market attention is now keenly fixed on upcoming US economic data releases, which are expected to sway the pair's trajectory amidst heightened speculation over rate cuts.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.67391, up 0.13%, reflecting a modest uptick amidst a broader market stability. The 4-hour chart reveals critical levels that traders should monitor. The pivot point is set at $0.6745, indicating a pivotal area for potential price action shifts.

Immediate resistance stands at $0.6760, followed by stronger resistance at $0.6778 and $0.6799. Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.6716, with further support levels at $0.6702 and $0.6685.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 48, suggesting a neutral market sentiment with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. This positioning implies potential for either upward or downward movements depending on forthcoming economic data and market reactions.

Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.6750, slightly above the current price, indicating a need for a sustained move above this level to confirm a bullish trend.

For traders, a strategic entry point would be above $0.67168, aiming for a take profit level at $0.67595. Setting a stop loss at $0.66953 is advisable to mitigate potential downside risks. This approach leverages the modest bullish momentum while ensuring protection against unexpected market shifts.

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Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 16, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 16, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair continued its bearish trend, remaining under pressure around the 0.6744 level and hitting an intraday low of 0.6732. The downward movement can be attributed to the strength of the US dollar, which gained ground despite dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on monetary policy.

The dollar's rise was fueled by recent events, including an unsuccessful attempt on Donald Trump's life, which has boosted his prospects for the 2024 presidential election and raised expectations of fewer regulations under his potential leadership.

Moving ahead, traders will keep their eyes on Australia's June Employment data, set for release on Thursday. Economists predict around 20,000 new jobs were added, down from 39,700 in May.

The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.0%. Strong signs of a tight labor market could raise expectations for further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Currently, investors anticipate the RBA may follow the global trend of rate cuts next year.

Impact of US Dollar Strength on AUD/USD Amid Political and Economic Expectations

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained positive traction and remained bullish as the recent events, including an unsuccessful attempt on Donald Trump's life, have bolstered his prospects for winning the 2024 presidential election, sparking hopes of reduced regulations under his potential leadership.

Moreover, the US dollar has strengthened on expectations that Trump's policies could lead to higher government debt and inflation.

Therefore, the US dollar's bullish sentiment, bolstered by events like an unsuccessful attempt on Donald Trump's life and expectations of reduced regulations and higher debt, has strengthened against the Australian dollar (AUD/USD), likely pushing the pair lower amid increased risk aversion and dollar demand.

US Dollar Strength and Fed's Policy Signals Impact on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on Monday bolstered the US dollar against the Australian dollar (AUD/USD). His confidence in inflation nearing the Fed's target sustainably has raised expectations of potential interest rate cuts. This outlook has capped gains in the US dollar, potentially helping the AUD/USD pair to limit its deeper losses.

Meanwhile, Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly highlighted a cooling inflation trend, suggesting that inflation is on track toward the Fed's 2% target.

She emphasized the importance of gathering more data before making decisions on interest rates. Market sentiment, as reflected in CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, now indicates an 85.7% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, up from 71.0% reported last week.

Hence, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish comments on Monday capped gains in the US dollar against the Australian dollar (AUD/USD). His confidence in inflation nearing the Fed's target sustainably has raised expectations of potential interest rate cuts, influencing the pair's movements.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is currently trading at $0.67365, down 0.17% from the previous session. The 4-hour chart highlights key price levels, with the pivot point set at $0.67. Immediate resistance is observed at $0.68, followed by further resistance levels at $0.6825 and $0.6850.

On the downside, immediate support is noted at $0.6710, with additional support at $0.6690 and $0.6670.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold conditions.

This could suggest a potential rebound if the bearish momentum begins to wane. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.68, providing a key resistance level that the price must overcome to shift towards a more bullish outlook.

The recent decline in the AUD/USD can be attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar, driven by positive economic data and market expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Additionally, weaker commodity prices and concerns over China's economic slowdown have put additional pressure on the Australian Dollar, which is heavily influenced by global commodity demand.

Traders looking to capitalize on the current downtrend should consider entering short positions below $0.67468, with a take-profit target at $0.67212 and a stop-loss set at $0.67622. This strategy aims to benefit from continued bearish momentum while managing potential risks effectively.

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Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 16, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD down 0.17%, trading at $0.67365 amid bearish momentum.

- Immediate resistance at $0.68; support levels at $0.6710, $0.6690, $0.6670.

- RSI at 30 indicates potential oversold conditions; 50-day EMA at $0.68.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is currently trading at $0.67365, down 0.17% from the previous session. The 4-hour chart highlights key price levels, with the pivot point set at $0.67. Immediate resistance is observed at $0.68, followed by further resistance levels at $0.6825 and $0.6850.

On the downside, immediate support is noted at $0.6710, with additional support at $0.6690 and $0.6670.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 30, indicating that the pair is approaching oversold conditions. This could suggest a potential rebound if the bearish momentum begins to wane. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.68, providing a key resistance level that the price must overcome to shift towards a more bullish outlook.

The recent decline in the AUD/USD can be attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar, driven by positive economic data and market expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Additionally, weaker commodity prices and concerns over China's economic slowdown have put additional pressure on the Australian Dollar, which is heavily influenced by global commodity demand.

Traders looking to capitalize on the current downtrend should consider entering short positions below $0.67468, with a take-profit target at $0.67212 and a stop-loss set at $0.67622. This strategy aims to benefit from continued bearish momentum while managing potential risks effectively.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.67468

Take Profit – 0.67212

Stop Loss – 0.67622

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$256/ -$154

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$25/ -$15

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 11, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 11, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum, staying strong around the 0.6759 level and peaking at an intraday high of 0.6764. This upward movement can be attributed to several factors.

Firstly, there is increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may postpone joining the global trend of interest rate cuts or even consider raising rates, which has bolstered demand for the Australian dollar and supported gains in AUD/USD.

Secondly, weakness in the US dollar also contributed as market expectations lean towards the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts starting in September, undermining the greenback's strength.

Looking ahead, traders are exercising caution in taking significant positions as they await the release of the latest consumer inflation figures from the United States (US).

The upcoming US CPI report is expected to be closely monitored for insights into the Federal Reserve's approach to potential rate cuts, which could influence demand for the US dollar and significantly impact commodity markets.

Impact of Economic Data and Speculation on AUD/USD Pair

Despite soft Consumer Inflation Expectations reported by the Melbourne Institute for July, reflecting subdued consumer outlook on inflation over the next year, the AUD/USD pair has displayed upward movement.

This rise can be attributed to increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may delay joining the global trend of interest rate cuts or possibly even consider raising rates again.

Recent data indicates a decline in Australian consumer confidence for July, contrasting with a surge in business sentiment to a 17-month high in June, highlighting divergent economic outlooks.

On the data front, Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations for July eased slightly to 4.3% from the previous 4.4%. Meanwhile, China, a key trade partner, reported a 0.2% annual increase in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, down from 0.3% in May and below market expectations of 0.4%.

On a monthly basis, Chinese CPI declined by 0.2% in June, contrasting with a 0.1% decrease in May and missing the anticipated 0.1% drop.

Additionally, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence fell by 1.1% in July following a 1.7% increase in June, marking the fifth decline this year amid concerns over elevated inflation, interest rates, and economic growth.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair exhibited upward movement, driven by speculation that the RBA may postpone rate cuts or even consider raising rates. The contrasting economic outlooks, with lower consumer confidence but higher business sentiment, also played a role in shaping its trajectory.

Impact of Fed Expectations and CPI Data on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar continues to weaken and remains bearish amid mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will commence interest rate cuts starting in September, potentially followed by additional cuts in December.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks have underscored this sentiment, highlighting the Fed's commitment to maintaining price stability and contemplating a move towards neutral interest rates by late 2024 as inflation trends evolve. Despite acknowledging signs of economic moderation,

On the data front, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to have risen by 0.1% in June, marking a slight easing in the annual rate from 3.3% to 3.1%. Meanwhile, Core CPI, which excludes Food and Energy prices, is expected to maintain a steady year-over-year rate of 3.4%.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair could find support as the US dollar weakens due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, bolstered by Chair Powell's comments on stable inflation and possible interest rate adjustments. Economic data indicating moderated CPI rates in the US could further impact market sentiment.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is showing signs of strength against the U.S. dollar, trading up 0.16% at $0.6758. A closer look at the 4-hour chart reveals a bullish bias, with the Aussie perched just above a pivot point of $0.6752.

This level now serves as a crucial support zone, with a break below potentially triggering a move towards the next support levels at $0.6732, $0.6712, and $0.6697.

Conversely, the bulls have their eyes on the immediate resistance at $0.6767. A decisive move above this level could open the door for a rally towards the next resistance targets at $0.6787 and $0.6804.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $0.6742, is also acting as dynamic support, further reinforcing the bullish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 64, suggesting some room for further upside before entering overbought territory. However, traders should remain vigilant for any signs of exhaustion or reversal in momentum.

Given the current technical setup, traders could consider initiating long positions above $0.67518, with a stop-loss order placed below $0.67321. The initial target for profit-taking would be the resistance level at $0.67870.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 11, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD trades above key pivot point, indicating bullish bias.

- Resistance levels at $0.6767, $0.6787, and $0.6804 pose upside potential.

- RSI suggests some room for further upside, but traders should watch for signs of reversal.

The Australian dollar is showing signs of strength against the U.S. dollar, trading up 0.16% at $0.6758. A closer look at the 4-hour chart reveals a bullish bias, with the Aussie perched just above a pivot point of $0.6752.

This level now serves as a crucial support zone, with a break below potentially triggering a move towards the next support levels at $0.6732, $0.6712, and $0.6697.

Conversely, the bulls have their eyes on the immediate resistance at $0.6767. A decisive move above this level could open the door for a rally towards the next resistance targets at $0.6787 and $0.6804.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $0.6742, is also acting as dynamic support, further reinforcing the bullish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 64, suggesting some room for further upside before entering overbought territory. However, traders should remain vigilant for any signs of exhaustion or reversal in momentum.

Given the current technical setup, traders could consider initiating long positions above $0.67518, with a stop-loss order placed below $0.67321. The initial target for profit-taking would be the resistance level at $0.67870.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67518

Take Profit – 0.67870

Stop Loss – 0.67321

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$352/ -$197

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$19

AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 9, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD trading at $0.67361; pivot point at $0.67207.

- Immediate resistance at $0.67515; support at $0.67221.

- RSI at 59.96, indicating neutral to slightly bullish conditions.

The AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.67361 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $0.67207 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $0.67515, with further resistance at $0.67670 and $0.67867.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.67221, followed by $0.67029 and $0.66821. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.67207, acting as a significant level for potential upward or downward movements.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 59.96, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish market sentiment.

This level suggests a balanced market, with potential for upward movements if the RSI increases further. The 50-day EMA at $0.67207 aligns closely with the current price, providing a crucial pivot point for traders to watch.

For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended above $0.67221, with a take profit level set at $0.67670 and a stop loss at $0.67029. Maintaining prices above the pivot point of $0.67207 could indicate a bullish trend continuation, whereas a move below this level might suggest a bearish reversal.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67221

Take Profit – 0.67670

Stop Loss – 0.67029

Risk to Reward – 1: 2.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$449/ -$19

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$44/ -$19

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 9, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around the 0.6738 level, hitting an intraday high of 0.6748.

The upward trend can be attributed to several factors, including rising expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might raise interest rates again, spurred by strong inflation data for May. This has bolstered the AUD currency and contributed to gains in the AUD/USD pair.

Additionally, the upticks in the AUD/USD pair were further supported by weakness in the US dollar, which lost ground following soft US employment data. This has led traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates sooner rather than later.

Impact of RBA Policy and Economic Indicators on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the currency's recent strength is linked to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may delay joining global rate cuts or even consider raising rates again, buoyed by strong May inflation figures.

Australia's 10-year government bond yield holding steady around 4.4% has also attracted foreign investment seeking stability amidst political uncertainties in the US and Europe.

The RBA's June Meeting Minutes highlighted their focus on monitoring inflation risks, noting that a significant price increase could necessitate much higher interest rates in response. These factors combined have supported the AUD's upward momentum against major currencies like the USD.

On the data front, Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped by 1.1% in July, reversing June's 1.7% increase, marking the fifth decline in 2024. This decline reflects ongoing concerns over high inflation, elevated interest rates, and a slow economy.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the country's trade surplus for May came in at A$5,773 million ($3,868 million), below expectations of A$6,678 million and down from A$6,548 million previously.

On a positive note, Australia's Retail Sales rose by 0.6% month-on-month in May, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% increase, indicating a stronger level of consumer spending compared to the previous month.

Therefore, the AUD's recent strength, bolstered by potential RBA rate stance and strong inflation data, has lifted it against the USD. Consumer confidence and trade surplus data, however, reflect mixed economic sentiment impacting AUD/USD trends.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Speculations on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing momentum as soft employment data fuels speculation of earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders are now pricing in a 76.2% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 65.5% last week, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify on the economy and monetary policy to Congress, where his remarks could influence market expectations.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on the challenge of returning inflation to 2%, while Powell indicated the Fed's commitment to addressing disinflationary pressures.

On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 206,000 in June, exceeding expectations of 190,000, following a gain of 218,000 in May. The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.1% from May's 4.0%, while Average Hourly Earnings decreased to a 3.9% year-over-year growth rate in June, aligning with market forecasts.

Therefore, the AUD/USD pair could see upward pressure as the US dollar weakens on speculation of earlier Fed rate cuts due to softer employment data, increasing the likelihood of a stronger Australian dollar against the USD.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.67361 on the 2-hour chart. The pivot point is positioned at $0.67207 (Green line). Immediate resistance is observed at $0.67515, with further resistance at $0.67670 and $0.67867.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.67221, followed by $0.67029 and $0.66821. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $0.67207, acting as a significant level for potential upward or downward movements.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 59.96, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish market sentiment.

This level suggests a balanced market, with potential for upward movements if the RSI increases further. The 50-day EMA at $0.67207 aligns closely with the current price, providing a crucial pivot point for traders to watch.

For traders, a strategic entry point is recommended above $0.67221, with a take profit level set at $0.67670 and a stop loss at $0.67029. Maintaining prices above the pivot point of $0.67207 could indicate a bullish trend continuation, whereas a move below this level might suggest a bearish reversal.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis – July 04, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 4, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained a bullish stance, consolidating around the 0.6716 level and reaching an intraday high of 0.6722.

The upward momentum was driven by multiple factors, including positive Australian economic data, particularly encouraging Retail Sales figures for May, which bolstered expectations of a potential rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

This provided substantial support to the Australian dollar (AUD). Additionally, the US dollar (USD) weakened as markets increasingly priced in the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts, further enhancing the AUD/USD pair's gains. Moreover, risk-on sentiment in the markets also contributed to the pair's upward movement.

Impact of Strong Australian Economic Data on AUD/USD Pair

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) rose following stronger-than-expected Retail Sales data for May, boosting expectations of a potential rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

The robust growth in Retail Sales suggests economic strength, prompting discussions that the RBA might consider raising interest rates as soon as August. This positive economic indicator has bolstered confidence in the AUD, reflecting market optimism about Australia's economic outlook amidst global uncertainties.

On the data front, Australia's Retail Sales for May showed a 0.6% month-on-month increase, up from 0.1% previously, as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday.

The Australian Dollar's strength was also supported by slight improvements in Judo Bank's Australia Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June.

Therefore, the stronger Retail Sales and improved economic outlook have lifted the AUD/USD pair, fueled by expectations of potential RBA rate hikes and positive market sentiment towards Australia's economy.

Impact of US Economic Data and Fed Stance on AUD/USD Pair

On the US front, the previously released weaker-than-expected economic data continues to weigh on the US dollar, which was seen as another key factor that kept the AUD/USD pair higher.

However, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' cautious stance could strengthen the USD and limit gains in the AUD/USD pair. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee remarked early Thursday that achieving 2% inflation will require time, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, the recent minutes from the FOMC's June meeting revealed that Fed policymakers lack confidence in the need for an immediate interest rate cut, preferring a data-dependent approach to monetary policy.

Markets now anticipate a 66% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut in September, up slightly from earlier expectations.

On the economic front, the private sector added 150,000 jobs in June, slightly less than expected and down from 157,000 in May. At the same time, more people filed for unemployment benefits, reaching the highest level in 2-1/2 years, showing weakening job market conditions.

Furthermore, the Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June dropped to 48.8, signaling a contraction in the services sector and hitting its lowest point since May 2020, much lower than predicted.

Therefore, the weaker US economic data and cautious Fed stance could support the AUD/USD pair, while signs of job market weakness and a contracting services sector in the US may limit the pair's upside trend.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67156, marking a modest gain of 0.11% in the early trading session. The 4-hour chart reveals pivotal technical levels that traders should watch closely.

The pivot point at $0.6733 is critical, acting as a potential fulcrum for either a bullish continuation or a bearish reversal. Immediate resistance levels are seen at $0.6749, $0.6767, and $0.6787.

Breaking above these resistance levels could open the path for further upward momentum, challenging higher price territories.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $0.6701, with subsequent supports at $0.6680 and $0.6655.

These levels could offer buying opportunities should the price experience a pullback. Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, nearing the overbought zone.

An RSI close to 70 typically indicates overvaluation, suggesting a possible bearish correction in the near term.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.6663, reinforcing a bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level could sustain the bullish bias.

Given the current market setup, a conservative trading strategy would be to enter a long position if the price breaks above $0.67008.

Setting a take-profit target at $0.67321 aligns with the pivot point, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential upside movement. A stop-loss at $0.66809, just below immediate support, limits downside risk from unexpected price dips.

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Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jul 4, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- AUD/USD trading at $0.67156, up 0.11%; pivot point at $0.6733 could signal reversal or continuation.

- RSI at 66 suggests near-overbought conditions; potential bearish correction if resistance at $0.6749, $0.6767, $0.6787 holds.

- 50 EMA at $0.6663 indicates bullish trend; a break above $0.67008 may trigger buying with targets at $0.67321.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at $0.67156, marking a modest gain of 0.11% in the early trading session. The 4-hour chart reveals pivotal technical levels that traders should watch closely.

The pivot point at $0.6733 is critical, acting as a potential fulcrum for either a bullish continuation or a bearish reversal. Immediate resistance levels are seen at $0.6749, $0.6767, and $0.6787. Breaking above these resistance levels could open the path for further upward momentum, challenging higher price territories.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $0.6701, with subsequent supports at $0.6680 and $0.6655. These levels could offer buying opportunities should the price experience a pullback. Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66, nearing the overbought zone.

An RSI close to 70 typically indicates overvaluation, suggesting a possible bearish correction in the near term.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $0.6663, reinforcing a bullish sentiment as long as the price remains above this average. The EMA acts as dynamic support, and maintaining a price above this level could sustain the bullish bias.

Given the current market setup, a conservative trading strategy would be to enter a long position if the price breaks above $0.67008. Setting a take-profit target at $0.67321 aligns with the pivot point, ensuring a favorable risk-reward ratio while capturing potential upside movement.

A stop-loss at $0.66809, just below immediate support, limits downside risk from unexpected price dips.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.67008

Take Profit – 0.67321

Stop Loss – 0.66809

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$313/ -$199

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$31/ -$19

AUD/USD