Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – March 25, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 25, 20243 min

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price has maintained its winning streak and surged recently, reaching nearly $2,170. The upward trend in gold can be attributed to several factors, including a weakening US Dollar. The dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates has put downward pressure on the US dollar, making gold more attractive to investors. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested potential interest rate cuts starting in June if unemployment unexpectedly rises. Despite high inflation, Powell assured no rush for rate hikes, boosting gold's attractiveness as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

US Dollar Downward Pressure and Its Impact on Gold Price:

On the US front, the US Dollar is under pressure due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates from June onwards. This expectation of lower rates has weakened the USD, making gold more appealing as an investment choice. The potential rate cuts are driven by concerns about economic growth and inflation. Powell's comments hint at the Fed's readiness to act if unemployment unexpectedly rises, signaling a cautious monetary policy stance. This uncertainty about future interest rates has led to a drop in the US dollar, which in turn has boosted gold prices.

Despite the dovish sentiment from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, which is typically seen as positive for market sentiment, the market failed to maintain its upward trend and turned red for the day. This was seen as another key factor lending support to the safe-haven gold price.

Impact of Upcoming US Inflation Readings on Gold Price:

Looking forward, the upcoming US inflation data will influence gold prices. This is why, traders are watching closely GDP and the PCE price index for insights into the economy's health and inflation. However, the high inflation might worry investors, driving them towards gold as a safe bet. If inflation exceeds expectations, it could mean less purchasing power, pushing investors towards gold.

Conversely, if inflation is lower than expected, it could signal a healthier economy, reducing demand for gold. Thus, traders will keenly watch upcoming data to predict inflation's direction and its effect on gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the latest session, GOLD experienced a subtle increase, finishing at $2170.655, which reflects a growth of 0.24%. This minor yet significant rise places GOLD at a crucial juncture, inviting investors to discern the intricate signals emanating from its price behavior. The established pivot point at $2167 serves as a foundational marker, indicating potential shifts in the asset's momentum.

When we delve into the dynamics of resistance and support, GOLD confronts its initial resistance at $2186. This is succeeded by more formidable barriers at $2199 and $2223, delineating thresholds that must be surpassed for GOLD to sustain its upward trajectory, thus presenting strategic points for profit realization. On the flip side, support levels at $2150, followed closely by $2138 and then $2124, act as critical zones where GOLD might find a rebound, thereby offering a cushion against potential declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 49, striking a balance between bullish and bearish domains and suggesting a market that is evenly poised yet verging on a decisive move. Moreover, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), mirroring the pivot point at $2167, underscores this level's central role in future price directions, highlighting a market that is cautiously optimistic yet ready for action.

Given this backdrop, a judicious approach would entail setting a Buy Limit at $2166, targeting a Take Profit at $2190 to leverage the anticipated upswing.

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