Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – March 22, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 22, 20244 min

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward rally and remained well offered around the 2,175 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained traction despite the Fed’s projected three rate cuts in 2024. However, the optimistic outlook for the US economy was seen as one of the key factors that helped the US dollar to regain traction. Hence, the US dollar's strength has played a major role in underpinning the Gold prices. Another factor undermining the precious metal gold was the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to undermine safe-haven assets like gold.

Federal Reserve Policy Outlook and Economic Data Influence Gold and US Dollar Dynamics

On the US front, the Federal Reserve plans to be less strict with its policies, which might prevent the US Dollar from gaining too much strength. They might decrease interest rates by 75 basis points this year. Despite this, the Dollar bounced back strongly after hitting a low following a recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The Fed is more optimistic about economic growth, predicting a 2.1% increase in real GDP by year-end, up from 1.4% in December. Furthermore, core inflation is projected to rise to 2.6%, and the unemployment rate for 2024 is forecasted to be 4%, slightly lower than previously thought. These developments support higher US Treasury bond yields, which boost the Dollar, but the Fed's less restrictive policy outlook could temper its upward momentum.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's less restrictive policy stance undermine the Gold price as the potential for lower interest rates and a stronger Dollar could diminish the appeal of the precious metal.

On the data front, the US Department of Labor reported a drop in Initial Jobless Claims to 210K for the week ending March 16, down from the previous 212K. Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned progress in talks for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release, which bolstered investor confidence.

Therefore, the decrease in Initial Jobless Claims and progress in Gaza ceasefire talks may strengthen the US Dollar as it indicates economic resilience. However, improved investor sentiment could reduce demand for safe-haven assets like Gold.

Moving ahead, investors will await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech for insights into future policy decisions, which could impact the XAU/USD. Powell's remarks are anticipated to provide fresh direction and momentum for gold trading.

Optimistic Outlook for US Economy Dampens Safe-Haven Appeal of Gold

Apart from this, the upbeat mood in the market, fueled by confidence in the US economy, is pushing investors towards riskier assets and away from safe-haven options like gold. This sentiment is often driven by optimism about economic conditions. As a result, they are less interested in buying gold, which is typically seen as a safe investment during uncertain times.

Hence, the optimistic outlook for the US economy and the ongoing risk-on sentiment reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to downward pressure on its price.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On March 22, gold experienced a slight decline, shedding 0.33% to settle at $2174.68. This movement occurs against a backdrop of oscillating market sentiments, with key technical levels providing insight into potential future movements. The pivot point for the day is set at $2190, with gold currently trading below this threshold, indicating short-term pressure. However, immediate resistance levels at $2186, $2199, and $2223 hint at possible upward movements should the market find sufficient momentum.

Support levels are established at $2150, $2138, and $2124, delineating critical zones where buyers might step in to curb further declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50, suggesting a market in balance between buyers and sellers. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2168 supports the notion that gold prices may find a foundation around the $2167 mark, a level closely watched by traders for potential buying opportunities.

The technical outlook suggests a cautious optimism for gold, proposing a strategic entry price for buy limit orders at $2166. This approach is complemented by a take profit level at $2190 and a stop loss at $2150, aiming to capitalize on the precious metal’s resilience and its tendency to rebound from key support levels.

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