Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Mar 27, 20243 min

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the GBP/USD pair failed to stop its downward trend and is showing sluggish performance on the day. However, the reasons for its downward trend can be attributed to several factors, including a renewed strength of US dollar and mixed economic data from both the UK and the US. It should be noted that the US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, is nearing a multi-week high. This strength is partly due to growing doubts about the Federal Reserve's commitment to cutting interest rates three times this year.

However, the previously released mixed economic data from the US includes a 1.4% increase in February's Durable Goods Orders, suggesting a healthy US economy, but downbeat indicators like US New Home Sales Change cause uncertainty in the market, which has supported the US dollar against major currencies like the British pound.

Bank of England's Stance and UK Economic Data Impact on GBP/USD

On the UK front, Catherine Mann from the Bank of England (BoE) believes that financial markets are expecting too many interest rate cuts this year. She thinks the BoE is unlikely to cut rates before the US Federal Reserve. Traders are watching for UK GDP growth numbers, expected to show a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 0.2% year-on-year contraction in the fourth quarter. If the GDP growth numbers are stronger than expected, the Pound Sterling (GBP) could gain strength. This could help the GBP/USD pair, acting as a positive force for the British pound against the US dollar.

Hence, Catherine Mann's comments dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Bank of England could lead to a stronger Pound Sterling (GBP) against the US dollar (USD). This could impact the GBP/USD currency pair positively, especially if UK economic data remains strong, supporting the British pound.

US Dollar Strength and Economic Data Impact on GBP/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strength, mainly due to doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as much as previously expected. This uncertainty stems from mixed economic data, including better-than-expected Durable Goods Orders but disappointing US New Home Sales Change figures. These mixed signals make investors unsure about the Fed's future actions, which supports the US dollar against other currencies like the British pound.

On the data front, the rise in Durable Goods Orders suggests a healthy economy, potentially prompting the Fed to consider raising interest rates instead of cutting them. Furthermore, the steady consumer confidence and slightly higher inflation expectations might encourage the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer. These factors could further strengthen dollar and contributes to the losses in the GBP/USD currency pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair has shown a mild downturn in today's market, marking a 0.10% decline to settle at 1.26173. The minor retreat underlines a cautious market sentiment, with traders keenly observing pivotal price levels for directional cues. The current technical setup pinpoints the pivot point at 1.2630 as a critical threshold for defining short-term market trends. Resistance levels identified at 1.2662, 1.2716, and 1.2758 outline potential ceilings that could cap gains, signaling areas where sellers might regain control.

Conversely, immediate support at 1.2578, followed by further cushions at 1.2539 and 1.2503, delineates zones where buying interest could be reignited, potentially halting any further declines. The technical landscape is further nuanced by the RSI indicator at 38, suggesting a tilt towards oversold conditions, and the 50-day EMA at 1.2675, slightly above the current price, hinting at underlying pressure on the pound.

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