EUR/USD Analysis – September 13, 2021

Pivot Point Resistance at 1.1823

The EUR/USD pair ended the day at $1.1814, with a high of $1.1852 and a low of $1.1809. On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair fell once again as the US dollar gained momentum. Thus, the Euro currency came under pressure throughout the day. After the announcement of positive macroeconomic data on Friday, the US Dollar Index was at an all-time high.

On Friday, the DXY rose to 92.65, recouping prior losses and bolstering the dollar's position against competitor currencies such as the Euro. The 10-year Treasury yield was also climbing with expectations that higher inflation will stay for a longer time, reaching 1.35 percent, adding to the dollar's strength and weighing on the EUR/USD pair.

Meanwhile, at the Eurogroup meeting on Friday, European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni stated that there were still clouds on the horizon despite a better-than-expected second quarter and that countries must stay attentive about the coronavirus epidemic potential supply constraints.

The commissioner also addressed the threat of rising inflation across the European Union, stating that such increases are only projected to be temporary. He went on to say that the 18 country's economic restoration plans had been authorized and that work had begun on them. He also stated that he was not seeking a quick economic recovery but rather for long-term progress.

The ministers also reviewed the COVID-19's uneven impact across economic sectors and regions at the Eurogroup conference. According to a survey, 13 EU countries are experiencing an increase in the number of cases of infections, although the European Centre for Disease Control also revealed that 71 percent of EU people are fully vaccinated.

On the data front, the German Final CPI for August came in at 0.0 percent, as expected, at 11:00 GMT. At 11:45 GMT, the French Industrial Production for July fell to 0.3 percent, versus a forecast of 0.4 percent, weighing on the single currency Euro, which added to the EUR/USD pair's loss. At 13:00 GMT, Italian Industrial Production increased by 0.8 percent, compared to a prediction of 0.0 percent, bolstering the Euro and limiting the slide in EUR/USD.

On the US side, the PPI for August rose to 0.7 percent at 17:30 GMT, beating expectations of 0.6 percent, supporting the currency, and adding weight on EUR/USD. In August, the Core PPI increased to 0.6 percent, up from the forecasted 0.5 percent, bolstering the US dollar and adding to the EUR/USD pair's losses. Final Wholesale Inventories remained unchanged at 19:00 GMT, despite estimates of 0.6 percent.

The single currency Euro fell on the day after Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, stated that the EU's economy was improving but that the proliferation of the Delta form of the COVID-19 could postpone a complete reopening of the economy. She went on to say that the ECB has changed its economic projection for the year, with more optimistic growth and inflation predictions, but the speed with which the economy recovers will be determined by how a pandemic develops in the coming months.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1807 1.1815

1.1804 1.1820

1.1799 1.1824

Pivot Point: 1.1812

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the EUR/USD is trading with bearish buys at the 1.1786 level. The closing of candles above the 1.1781 level suggests that the pair is gaining support at this level. However, a break out of the 1.1781 level could expose EUR/USD prices towards the next support level of the 1.1754 level. Overall, the trading bias for the principal remains bearish as it has violated the pivot point level of 1.1823 level. On the resistance side, immediate resistance stays at the 1.18008 level. The bullish crossover above the 1.1808 level exposes the euro pair towards the pivot point level of 1.1823, whereas the break out of the 1.1823 level exposes the pair towards the 1.1850 level. The leading technical indicator, stochastic RSI, is holding in a selling zone, therefore the bearish bias dominates below 1.1823 and vice versa. All the best