Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Price Analysis – June 16, 2023

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Jun 16, 20233 min
Signal 2023 05 25 122632 002

Daily Price Outlook

Bitcoin is currently priced at $25,480.98 per bitcoin (USD), with a market capitalization of $494.42 billion. The daily trading volume is $15.63 billion, and the real-time BTC to USD price is continuously updated. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has gained 1.56%, with 19.40 million coins in circulation.

However, the outlook for Bitcoin’s price is facing potential depreciation as the stock market rally follows a familiar pattern. The cryptocurrency market’s total capitalization is rapidly dropping below $1 trillion, while the S&P 500 index has experienced a more than 15% increase since its previous low in March. This suggests a possible decline for BTC.

The correlation between the price of Bitcoin and the stock market has shifted in recent weeks. Earlier this year, BTC performed well while the S&P 500 index declined due to issues with US banks.

However, the current situation shows the stock market flourishing while Bitcoin’s price falls to a three-month low below $25,000. The correlation between the two markets has reached its lowest level since December 2022, with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.55.

Economist Dan Gambardello notes a similar event occurred in 2019 when Bitcoin’s price dropped by approximately 34% while the stock market rose. However, the Bitcoin market eventually recovered, debunking the notion that it had been left behind by the stock market.

In related news, BlackRock, an international investment management company with $8.59 trillion in assets under management, is taking steps to apply to a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Despite the regulatory uncertainties surrounding cryptocurrencies, BlackRock plans to use Coinbase Custody, a cryptocurrency custodial service, and rely on the exchange’s spot market data for pricing, according to a source familiar.

BTC/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

BTC/USD – Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently experiencing a period of consolidation following its failure to surpass the resistance level of $25,600. During the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin tested the support level at $24,750 and formed a bullish hammer candlestick, indicating a potential market reversal.

The subsequent candlestick closed above the support level, suggesting the presence of bullish momentum. It is important to note that Bitcoin has already completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around the $25,600 level. The inability to break above this level may impede further upward movement.

Moreover, the $25,600 level previously acted as a strong support on multiple occasions, which could now act as resistance to Bitcoin’s price.

The bullish sentiment will likely persist as long as Bitcoin remains above this level. However, the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) display mixed signals.

The RSI is below 50, indicating a bearish bias, but it has recently bounced above the zero line, entering the buying zone. The MACD also crosses above its signal line, supporting the potential for a bullish continuation.

If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $25,600 level, it could target resistance levels at $26,000 and $26,250. On the downside, immediate support levels for Bitcoin are observed at $25,150 and $24,750.



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