Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Apr 9, 20243 min

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the downbeat Australian data, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and showed a mild bullish performance. This was largely due to several factors that supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD). However, this strength can be attributed to improved risk appetite, as indicated by a higher domestic equity market and growing doubts about the need for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates in 2024. Meanwhile, the ongoing discussion regarding a potential interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve tends to undermine the US dollar and contributes to the AUD/USD currency pair gains.

Australian Dollar Strength Amid Positive Market Sentiment

However, the Australian currency gained positive traction and strengthened against the US Dollar amid a higher domestic equity market, with the ASX 200 Index positioning for gains. Investor attention remained fixed on the RBA's interest rate decisions, and the positive outlook for the Australian economy supported the AUD/USD currency pair. Moreover, the market's upbeat sentiment, driven by the expectation that the RBA might avoid interest rate cuts, further boosted the Australian Dollar's strength.

On the data front, Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence declined by 2.4% in April, against the previous fall of 1.8%. Despite this, the AUD/USD currency pair has been on the bullish track as other factors supported the Australian Dollar. The decline in consumer confidence may raise concerns about the strength of the Australian economy, but the overall outlook remained positive.

US Dollar Weakness and Anticipation of Rate Cut Benefit AUD/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar faced downward pressure due to ongoing discussions about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which tends to weaken the currency. In the meantime, traders seem hesitant to place any strong position ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release. Traders eagerly await the CPI data for guidance, with the anticipation of a possible rate cut by the Fed in June adding to the downward pressure on the USD, benefiting the AUD/USD currency pair.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On April 9, the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a slight increase, trading at 0.66069, up by 0.04%. The currency pair is hovering around the pivot point of 0.6584, indicating a narrow trading range. Resistance levels are mapped at 0.6635, 0.6665, and 0.6696, suggesting potential hurdles for upward movements. Conversely, the immediate support post the pivot is at 0.6585, with further cushions at 0.6550 and 0.6508, delineating key levels where buying interest might intensify.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, depicting a relatively strong market but not yet in overbought territory, which might allow for some upward potential. However, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6546 provides a solid foundation, indicating that the pair has been in a general uptrend recently.

For traders, the technical landscape suggests a cautious approach with a bearish tilt. Considering the current levels, a strategy to sell below 0.66234 might be prudent, aiming for a take-profit at 0.65836, while keeping a stop loss at 0.66443 to mitigate potential losses.

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