Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 09, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 9, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) prolonged its six-day downward trend and remained well offered around $2,621 after hitting an intra-day low of $2,615. This downward trend is triggered by the bullish US dollar, which gained positive traction in the wake of decreasing expectations for a significant Fed rate cut in November. Traders seems cautious to place any strong position ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data. Alongside these factors, reports of a potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel are intensifying the downward pressure on gold prices.

Strong US Dollar and Mixed Fed Signals Weigh on Gold Prices

On the U.S. side, the US dollar continued its upward trend, remaining well-supported around the multi-week high reached last Friday. This strength is driven by a reduction in investor expectations for an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, which has placed additional pressure on gold prices, pushing them below the $2,630 support level. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there is now an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with a 50-basis-point cut anticipated by year-end.

Fed officials have conveyed mixed signals regarding interest rate policy. New York Fed President John Williams suggested that a gradual reduction in interest rates is appropriate, using the September 50-basis-point cut as a reference for future actions. In contrast, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized that policy decisions would be data-driven, indicating that more cuts could occur if inflation continues to improve.

Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins pointed out that while inflation is cooling, the U.S. economy and labor markets remain robust. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also noted that economic growth is solid, inflation has eased, and the labor market has cooled from its previous overheating.

In the meantime, the 10-year U.S. government bond yield remains above 4%, exerting further pressure on gold. As a result, the reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, coupled with strong U.S. economic data, have bolstered the US dollar, pushing gold prices lower.

Easing Geopolitical Tensions and Technical Selling Pressure Gold Prices Downward

On the geopolitical front, Iran-backed Hezbollah indicated on Tuesday that it might be willing to consider a ceasefire without requiring an end to the Gaza war as a precondition. This development has sparked hopes for reduced tensions between Lebanon and Israel, which could diminish the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Consequently, the combination of easing geopolitical tensions and technical factors is contributing to the current downturn in gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading lower at $2,613.02, down 0.34% for the day, signaling continued selling pressure as the metal struggles to hold above critical support levels. On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading below the pivot point at $2,623.02, indicating a bearish outlook in the near term. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,632.79, with additional hurdles at $2,640.56 and $2,655.51 if buying interest picks up.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $2,606.30, followed by deeper support levels at $2,596.45 and $2,586.52. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,635.53 suggests a strong resistance level, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37, indicating the metal is approaching oversold territory, which may suggest a potential rebound if prices stabilize above the $2,620 mark.

Given the bearish momentum, traders may consider selling below $2,620 with a target at $2,606, while a stop-loss order above $2,627 could limit risk. A decisive break below $2,606 could accelerate selling pressure, driving prices toward the next support level at $2,596. Conversely, a recovery above $2,623 could signal a reversal, with potential gains toward $2,635.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 8, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold faces resistance at $2,656, with RSI at 46, indicating limited bullish momentum for now.

- Breaking below $2,631 support could trigger a deeper correction toward $2,624 and $2,617 levels.

- CPI report impact on gold likely to drive next major move, watch for key resistance and support levels.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,641.84, slightly down by 0.04% in the current session. After encountering strong resistance at $2,651—marked by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—the yellow metal has struggled to gain momentum. Price action remains within a tight range, as traders look for catalysts to determine the next direction.

On the 4-hour chart, gold is hovering just below the pivot point at $2,645, indicating a lack of clear directional bias. Immediate resistance lies at $2,656, followed by $2,663 and $2,670. Breaking above these levels could trigger a short-term bullish trend. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 46, there’s limited bullish momentum, and gold could remain under pressure in the short term.

Conversely, if prices break below immediate support at $2,631, gold could see further declines, with subsequent support levels at $2,624 and $2,617. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, with the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report likely to have a significant impact on gold prices.

Traders are advised to monitor key price levels closely. A move below $2,631 may signal a deeper correction, while a sustained break above $2,656 could pave the way for a potential recovery.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2650

Take Profit – 2633

Stop Loss – 2660

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$100

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 08, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 8, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) is unable to stop its downward trend and remains under pressure, nearing the $2,630 support level. The main reason for this decline is Friday's strong US jobs report, which showed a resilient labor market. This data has led investors to scale back expectations for a major interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Despite this, a slight drop in the US Dollar and concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East could still support gold. Traders are cautious ahead of key events this week, including the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and US inflation data (CPI and PPI) later in the week, which could impact gold’s direction further.

US Economic Indicators and Geopolitical Tensions Influencing Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar weakened slightly, but a strong US jobs report from September has reduced expectations for an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The report highlighted a strong labor market, causing investors to scale back their bets on significant interest rate cuts, which has hurt demand for gold, a non-yielding asset. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is now an 85% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November.

Meanwhile, Fed officials, like Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, indicated that risks have shifted from high inflation to potential rising unemployment. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also supported further interest rate cuts depending on economic performance. Traders are also cautious ahead of key US inflation data (CPI and PPI) and the FOMC meeting minutes, both due this week, which could further influence gold prices.

Therefore, the US jobs report and shifting Fed policy expectations have weakened gold demand due to reduced interest rate cut bets. However, rising geopolitical tensions may provide some support for gold as a safe-haven asset amid uncertainty in the market.

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Concerns Impacting Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, tensions are escalating as Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel’s Haifa port and a military base near Tel Aviv, prompting Israel to respond with airstrikes on buildings in southern Beirut. Investors are worried that these conflicts could spread, which may boost gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and help limit further losses in its price.

In addition, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) warned of increasing downward pressure on the Chinese economy. Traders are now focused on upcoming economic data, starting with the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. This will be followed by key US inflation figures on Thursday and Friday, which could significantly impact market sentiment and influence gold prices.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,641.84, slightly down by 0.04% in the current session. After encountering strong resistance at $2,651—marked by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—the yellow metal has struggled to gain momentum. Price action remains within a tight range, as traders look for catalysts to determine the next direction.

On the 4-hour chart, gold is hovering just below the pivot point at $2,645, indicating a lack of clear directional bias. Immediate resistance lies at $2,656, followed by $2,663 and $2,670. Breaking above these levels could trigger a short-term bullish trend. However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting at 46, there’s limited bullish momentum, and gold could remain under pressure in the short term.

Conversely, if prices break below immediate support at $2,631, gold could see further declines, with subsequent support levels at $2,624 and $2,617. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, with the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report likely to have a significant impact on gold prices.

Traders are advised to monitor key price levels closely. A move below $2,631 may signal a deeper correction, while a sustained break above $2,656 could pave the way for a potential recovery.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 7, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Gold trades below the 50-day EMA at 2,653.37, indicating weak bullish momentum and downside risk.

- Immediate support stands at 2,638.72; a break below could lead to declines toward 2,632.38.

- Stronger U.S. economic data and a robust dollar continue to exert downward pressure on gold.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade under pressure, declining 0.22% to hover around 2,643.68. The yellow metal’s current price action reflects indecisiveness as it remains within a tight consolidation range between 2,638.72 and 2,658.54. This neutral stance is a direct result of stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which has boosted the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, consequently putting downward pressure on gold.

Technical Overview: On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading slightly below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 2,653.37, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, suggesting moderate bearish sentiment but with room for a potential rebound.

If gold prices break below immediate support at 2,638.72, it could pave the way for further declines towards 2,632.38 and possibly 2,624.84. Conversely, holding above 2,643.68 could encourage a retest of the 2,652.40 pivot point, followed by resistance levels at 2,658.54 and 2,666.35.

Conclusion: Given the bearish undertone, selling below 2,649 seems prudent, with a take profit target set at 2,635 and a stop loss at 2,656. Traders should monitor price action around the key support level of 2,638.72, as a sustained move below this level could trigger a more substantial sell-off.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2649

Take Profit – 2635

Stop Loss – 2656

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1400/ -$700

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$140/ -$70

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 07, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 7, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) remain under pressure, trading within the range of 2,639 to 2,653 as a result of several key factors. Investors are increasingly reducing their expectations for aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve, particularly following the release of strong US jobs data on Friday. This shift in sentiment has bolstered the US Dollar, pushing it to a seven-week high and contributing to the ongoing decline in gold prices.

Conversely, easing concerns about a US economic slowdown, combined with optimism regarding China's stimulus measures, is boosting market sentiment, which is putting additional pressure on gold prices. Whereas, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offer some support for gold, as investors typically flock to this safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty.

Strong US Economic Data Strengthens Dollar and Pressures Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has gained strength, hitting a seven-week high around 102.380 as investors lower their expectations for aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. This shift followed the release of robust US jobs data on Friday, which revealed that the economy added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations.

Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market. The data also showed that an additional 72,000 jobs were created in July and August than previously reported, suggesting that the economy is in better shape than anticipated.

As a result, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to implement aggressive policy easing have diminished. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, there is now a 95% chance that the Fed will only lower rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. This outlook has put additional pressure on gold prices (XAU/USD).

Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Tensions Impact Gold Prices

On the flip side, easing concerns about a US economic slowdown and positive sentiment surrounding China's stimulus measures are boosting the market mood, which is not good for safe-haven assets like gold. Although, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following Israel's recent airstrikes in Gaza and Lebanon, could bolster gold's status as a safe-haven asset.

Therefore, the easing concerns about a US economic slowdown and positive sentiment from China's stimulus measures weaken gold prices. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting its price.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade under pressure, declining 0.22% to hover around 2,643.68. The yellow metal’s current price action reflects indecisiveness as it remains within a tight consolidation range between 2,638.72 and 2,658.54. This neutral stance is a direct result of stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data, which has boosted the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, consequently putting downward pressure on gold.

Technical Overview: On the 4-hour chart, gold is trading slightly below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 2,653.37, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, suggesting moderate bearish sentiment but with room for a potential rebound.

If gold prices break below immediate support at 2,638.72, it could pave the way for further declines towards 2,632.38 and possibly 2,624.84. Conversely, holding above 2,643.68 could encourage a retest of the 2,652.40 pivot point, followed by resistance levels at 2,658.54 and 2,666.35.

Conclusion: Given the bearish undertone, selling below 2,649 seems prudent, with a take profit target set at 2,635 and a stop loss at 2,656. Traders should monitor price action around the key support level of 2,638.72, as a sustained move below this level could trigger a more substantial sell-off.

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GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 04, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 4, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently stuck in a tight trading range between $2,654 and $2,667, despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This consolidation suggests that investors are cautious, perhaps waiting for clearer signals before making their next move.

The stronger US dollar plays a significant role in gold's bearish trend, primarily driven by fading expectations of aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve.

However, if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate or if the risk of a wider conflict increases, we could see renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Such developments might help support its price and limit further losses, highlighting gold's enduring appeal in uncertain times.

Looking ahead, traders seem to be adopting a cautious approach, choosing to hold off on making moves in the gold market until the release of the highly anticipated US monthly employment report.

The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to play a crucial role in shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting timeline.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Positive Labor Market Indicators and Fed Policy Outlook

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) has been gaining strength, trading close to a one-month high, thanks to reduced expectations for aggressive policy easing from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In a recent report, the US Department of Labor noted a slight uptick in unemployment benefit claims, which rose to 225,000 for the week ending September 28, compared to 218,000 the previous week.

This increase follows a larger-than-expected rise in private-sector employment and an unexpected boost in job openings from August, indicating a stable and resilient labor market.

Moreover, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) noted that its Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in September, the highest level since February 2023, suggesting a solid economic foundation in the third quarter.

Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to reveal an addition of 140,000 jobs in September, a slight dip from the previous figure of 142,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%.

This combination of encouraging labor market indicators is dampening expectations for substantial interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). As a result, the US Dollar is gaining strength, creating challenges for non-yielding assets like gold (XAU/USD).

Escalating Middle East Tensions Drive Investors to Safe-Haven Gold

Moreover, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East are pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like Gold (XAU/USD).

Recently, Hezbollah launched about 230 projectiles from Lebanon into Israel, leading to Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah's intelligence headquarters in Beirut.

The Israeli military has warned residents to evacuate areas in southern Lebanon outside a U.N.-declared buffer zone, indicating a potential expansion of its ground operations against Hezbollah.

Israeli forces have already targeted around 200 Hezbollah sites across Lebanon, including weapons storage and observation posts, with explosions shaking Beirut's southern suburbs overnight.

As the conflict escalates, nearly 1.2 million people in Lebanon have been displaced from their homes. At least nine Israeli soldiers have died in clashes with Hezbollah, marking the beginning of what Israel describes as a limited ground incursion.

The situation is further complicated by reports that Israel is planning a significant retaliation against Iran, which recently launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles.

These developments increase the risk of a broader conflict, driving traders to seek safety in Gold. The uncertainty surrounding the region continues to support gold prices as investors look for secure investments amid rising tensions.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold is currently trading at $2,662.35, gaining 0.27% and staying just below its pivot point of $2,663.15.

This minor upward movement indicates a cautious optimism among traders as they await the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the metal's short-term trajectory.

Immediate resistance is noted at $2,671.80, and a break above this level could push prices towards the next resistance points at $2,678.07 and $2,685.66.

On the downside, the $2,651.14 support level is pivotal, backed by the 50-day EMA at $2,651.08. If gold breaks below this level, it may extend its losses to $2,642.23 and possibly even $2,634.48.

The RSI is currently at 58, suggesting moderate bullish momentum but with room to rise further before approaching overbought territory.

For traders looking to capitalize on short-term opportunities, a buy entry above $2,665 is recommended, targeting a take-profit level at $2,677, while maintaining a stop-loss at $2,654.

This setup aligns with the expectation of bullish continuation if prices sustain above the pivot point. A successful breach above $2,671.80 would add to the bullish case, attracting more buyers and pushing gold toward the upper resistance levels.

However, if the NFP data surprises on the upside, a stronger US dollar could weigh on gold, driving it back toward support levels.

For now, gold’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish above $2,665, with potential for further gains if technical conditions align favorably.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 4, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Point in Focus: Gold remains cautiously bullish above the $2,663.15 pivot point.

- Immediate Resistance: Watch for a breakout above $2,671.80 to signal further gains.

- Support Levels: Key support at $2,651.14; a drop below this level could shift momentum.

Gold is currently trading at $2,662.35, gaining 0.27% and staying just below its pivot point of $2,663.15. This minor upward movement indicates a cautious optimism among traders as they await the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the metal's short-term trajectory. Immediate resistance is noted at $2,671.80, and a break above this level could push prices towards the next resistance points at $2,678.07 and $2,685.66.

On the downside, the $2,651.14 support level is pivotal, backed by the 50-day EMA at $2,651.08. If gold breaks below this level, it may extend its losses to $2,642.23 and possibly even $2,634.48. The RSI is currently at 58, suggesting moderate bullish momentum but with room to rise further before approaching overbought territory.

For traders looking to capitalize on short-term opportunities, a buy entry above $2,665 is recommended, targeting a take-profit level at $2,677, while maintaining a stop-loss at $2,654. This setup aligns with the expectation of bullish continuation if prices sustain above the pivot point. A successful breach above $2,671.80 would add to the bullish case, attracting more buyers and pushing gold toward the upper resistance levels.

However, if the NFP data surprises on the upside, a stronger US dollar could weigh on gold, driving it back toward support levels. For now, gold’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish above $2,665, with potential for further gains if technical conditions align favorably.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2665

Take Profit – 2677

Stop Loss – 2654

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.09

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$1100

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$120/ -$110

GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 3, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Symmetrical Triangle Formation: Suggests an imminent breakout, with key levels at $2,663.03 resistance and $2,644.53 support.

- 50 EMA as Critical Pivot: Gold must hold above $2,652.76 to sustain bullish momentum.

- RSI Neutral at 53: Indicates the market is in equilibrium, awaiting directional cues from economic data.

Gold prices are currently trading at $2,656.04, marking a slight decline of 0.11% as investors await key U.S. economic data later in the week. The precious metal has entered a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range as market participants assess the impact of the upcoming Non-Farm Employment report and Average Hourly Earnings data.

The 4-hour chart indicates a symmetrical triangle formation, with immediate resistance seen at $2,663.03 and support levels around $2,644.53. This pattern typically suggests that a significant price breakout is on the horizon, though the direction remains contingent on the forthcoming economic indicators.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,652.76, acting as a short-term pivot point for price movements. If the metal stays above this level, it could pave the way for a bullish run, targeting $2,671.80 and $2,685.66 in the coming sessions. On the downside, if prices dip below $2,644.53, gold may see further declines towards the next support at $2,636.09 and potentially $2,627.49.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53, reflecting a neutral stance with no clear overbought or oversold signals, suggesting that traders should remain cautious as volatility could surge. Market participants should look for a break above the $2,663.03 resistance to signal a bullish continuation, while a fall below $2,644.53 may reignite bearish sentiment.

Conclusion: Traders looking to enter positions could consider buying above $2,653, targeting $2,670 with a stop-loss set at $2,645, given the current technical setup and near-term economic calendar.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2653

Take Profit – 2670

Stop Loss – 2645

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1700/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$170/ -$80

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 03, 2024

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 3, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its downward trend on Thursday, trading around $2,640 as expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts diminished.

The resilient US labor market bolstered the US Dollar (USD), which reached a multi-week high, diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Despite this, concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East and a general decline in global interest rates are providing some support, limiting further downside for gold prices.

Strengthening US Dollar and Shifting Labor Market Expectations Weigh on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is gaining strength as recent economic data highlights a resilient labor market. This has tempered expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Following stronger labor market reports and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the dollar has recovered from its lowest levels since July 2023, rising to a three-week high.

This increase has negatively impacted demand for gold, which is a non-yielding asset typically priced in USD.

Gold’s price upside is also limited by fluctuating expectations about future US interest rates. Last week, the chances of the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in November were above 60%, but those odds have since dropped to around 30%.

This shift follows the release of stronger-than-expected US jobs data, suggesting the economy is stable.

For instance, the JOLTS Job Openings survey showed a surprising increase in available jobs, rising from 7.711 million to 8.040 million in August.

Additionally, the ADP report revealed that private-sector employers added 143,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations. These developments are influencing gold's demand as market sentiment shifts.

Escalating Tensions in the Middle East and Its Impact on Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East have risen sharply as Iran launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday.

Iran claims these missiles targeted key military and security sites in Israel in retaliation for deadly attacks on Gaza and Lebanon and the killings of senior leaders from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the IRGC.

Israel reported that many of the missiles were intercepted and has vowed to respond, but Iran has warned of “crushing” attacks if Israel takes action.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have conducted ongoing attacks across the Gaza Strip, resulting in the deaths of at least 29 Palestinians. Since October, the situation has worsened, with reports indicating that over 41,638 people have been killed and around 96,460 injured in Gaza due to Israeli strikes.

Therefore, the escalating conflict and instability in the region could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amidst rising uncertainties.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold prices are currently trading at $2,656.04, marking a slight decline of 0.11% as investors await key U.S. economic data later in the week.

The precious metal has entered a consolidation phase, oscillating within a narrow range as market participants assess the impact of the upcoming Non-Farm Employment report and Average Hourly Earnings data.

The 4-hour chart indicates a symmetrical triangle formation, with immediate resistance seen at $2,663.03 and support levels around $2,644.53.

This pattern typically suggests that a significant price breakout is on the horizon, though the direction remains contingent on the forthcoming economic indicators.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $2,652.76, acting as a short-term pivot point for price movements. If the metal stays above this level, it could pave the way for a bullish run, targeting $2,671.80 and $2,685.66 in the coming sessions.

On the downside, if prices dip below $2,644.53, gold may see further declines towards the next support at $2,636.09 and potentially $2,627.49.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53, reflecting a neutral stance with no clear overbought or oversold signals, suggesting that traders should remain cautious as volatility could surge.

Market participants should look for a break above the $2,663.03 resistance to signal a bullish continuation, while a fall below $2,644.53 may reignite bearish sentiment.

Conclusion: Traders looking to enter positions could consider buying above $2,653, targeting $2,670 with a stop-loss set at $2,645, given the current technical setup and near-term economic calendar.

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GOLD

Daily Trade Ideas

GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LonghornFX Technical Analysis
Oct 2, 2024
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

- Resistance at $2,669.37: Gold needs to clear this level for a bullish reversal.

- Immediate Support at $2,648.16: A break below may trigger further declines.

- 50-EMA as a Barrier: Acting as strong resistance, holding back bullish momentum.

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,654.30, down 0.35% for the day, as the metal faces renewed selling pressure. Despite a modest recovery attempt, gold failed to breach the immediate resistance level at $2,669.37, which aligns with its descending trendline and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,656.41. This has reinforced bearish sentiment among traders.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding at 50, indicating a lack of strong momentum in either direction. If gold prices break below the immediate support at $2,648.16, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the next support levels at $2,639.79 and $2,631.27. Conversely, if gold manages to clear the $2,669.37 resistance, it could set the stage for a move higher to $2,677.74 and potentially $2,685.39.

Short-term technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook, with gold needing to maintain support above $2,648.16 to avoid further declines. Traders should watch for a clear break above $2,669.37 to confirm any renewed bullish momentum.

Gold remains under bearish pressure. An entry position could be considered below $2,660, targeting support at $2,648. For upside potential, a break above $2,669 is required to open further gains.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2660

Take Profit – 2648

Stop Loss – 2669

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$900

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$120/ -$90

GOLD