GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) picked up some further bullish momentum and climbing to an intraday high of $2,653.82. However, the increase came as investors sought safety amid rising global tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to unsettle markets.
Adding to the uncertainty, concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariff policies have made gold a more attractive option for investors looking to safeguard their assets in these uncertain times.
Moving ahead, traders await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
Gold Gains Amid Weaker US Dollar and Cautious Fed Signals
On the US front, the US dollar has been under pressure, weighed down by bond market optimism and cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from November 7 show that policymakers are hesitant to cut interest rates further, citing easing inflation and strong job growth.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed is moving toward a neutral rate policy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted at the possibility of another rate cut in December.
Adding to the uncertainty, US President-elect Donald Trump is making key appointments, with Jamieson Greer expected to become the US Trade Representative, emphasizing tariffs as a cornerstone of Trump’s economic plans.
Moreover, Scott Bessent, a seasoned Wall Street figure, has been nominated as Treasury Secretary, signaling a focus on fiscal conservatism. These developments have supported gains in the US bond market, creating mixed sentiment around the dollar.
On the US economic front, the recent data like the preliminary S&P Global PMI, suggests the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts. Futures markets currently estimate a 57.7% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December. This cautious outlook on monetary policy keeps traders focused on inflation trends and upcoming Fed decisions.
Therefore, the weaker US dollar and cautious Federal Reserve outlook support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. However, uncertainty around future rate cuts and strong US bond market performance may limit gold's upside in the near term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.20, up 0.43%, as the metal continues its rebound from recent lows. On the 4-hour chart, the price is firmly positioned above the pivot point at $2,636.43, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,646.32, closely aligned with recent highs, while further resistance is seen at $2,655.97. A decisive breakout above these levels could pave the way for an extended rally toward $2,665.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,624.72, with secondary levels at $2,590.15 and $2,576.56. A break below the pivot point could expose gold to bearish momentum, testing the $2,600 mark and possibly lower levels.
Technical indicators point to a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The RSI currently stands at 48, signaling consolidation with room for either a breakout or a pullback depending on upcoming catalysts. Traders are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for cues.
The overall technical picture suggests that gold’s ability to sustain above the pivot point at $2,636.43 is critical for maintaining upward momentum. However, strong resistance at $2,646.32 could limit gains unless fresh drivers emerge.
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